Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th district, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The seat’s partisan voting index exceeds D+13, and Himes won re-election in 2024 by double digits in a district encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. Democratic primary challengers have not emerged as credible threats, while Republican contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages that have held through the current cycle. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a national political realignment of historic scale, or an unusually strong Republican primary performance capable of broadening the general-election contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,367 Vol.
$32,367 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$32,367 Vol.
$32,367 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,042 Vol.
94%
共和党
$18,325 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th district, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The seat’s partisan voting index exceeds D+13, and Himes won re-election in 2024 by double digits in a district encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. Democratic primary challengers have not emerged as credible threats, while Republican contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages that have held through the current cycle. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a national political realignment of historic scale, or an unusually strong Republican primary performance capable of broadening the general-election contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$32,367終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th district, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The seat’s partisan voting index exceeds D+13, and Himes won re-election in 2024 by double digits in a district encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. Democratic primary challengers have not emerged as credible threats, while Republican contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages that have held through the current cycle. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a national political realignment of historic scale, or an unusually strong Republican primary performance capable of broadening the general-election contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,367終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th district, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The seat’s partisan voting index exceeds D+13, and Himes won re-election in 2024 by double digits in a district encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. Democratic primary challengers have not emerged as credible threats, while Republican contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages that have held through the current cycle. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a national political realignment of historic scale, or an unusually strong Republican primary performance capable of broadening the general-election contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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