Ohio's 4th Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Republican House winner, reinforced by incumbent Jim Jordan's unopposed path in the May 5 Republican primary. The October 2025 redistricting maintained the district's deep-red status—41st most Republican nationally—following Jordan's consistent 30+ point general election margins, including 68.5% in 2024. Democrat Joshua Kolasinski, facing no primary opposition after Tamie Wilson's withdrawal, lacks the resources or name recognition for an upset in this safe seat. Scenarios to challenge include a late scandal, Jordan health event, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates for such flips in R+21 districts are near zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ohio's 4th Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Republican House winner, reinforced by incumbent Jim Jordan's unopposed path in the May 5 Republican primary. The October 2025 redistricting maintained the district's deep-red status—41st most Republican nationally—following Jordan's consistent 30+ point general election margins, including 68.5% in 2024. Democrat Joshua Kolasinski, facing no primary opposition after Tamie Wilson's withdrawal, lacks the resources or name recognition for an upset in this safe seat. Scenarios to challenge include a late scandal, Jordan health event, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates for such flips in R+21 districts are near zero.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ohio's 4th Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Republican House winner, reinforced by incumbent Jim Jordan's unopposed path in the May 5 Republican primary. The October 2025 redistricting maintained the district's deep-red status—41st most Republican nationally—following Jordan's consistent 30+ point general election margins, including 68.5% in 2024. Democrat Joshua Kolasinski, facing no primary opposition after Tamie Wilson's withdrawal, lacks the resources or name recognition for an upset in this safe seat. Scenarios to challenge include a late scandal, Jordan health event, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates for such flips in R+21 districts are near zero.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ohio's 4th Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Republican House winner, reinforced by incumbent Jim Jordan's unopposed path in the May 5 Republican primary. The October 2025 redistricting maintained the district's deep-red status—41st most Republican nationally—following Jordan's consistent 30+ point general election margins, including 68.5% in 2024. Democrat Joshua Kolasinski, facing no primary opposition after Tamie Wilson's withdrawal, lacks the resources or name recognition for an upset in this safe seat. Scenarios to challenge include a late scandal, Jordan health event, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates for such flips in R+21 districts are near zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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