Maryland’s 4th Congressional District maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 against minimal Republican opposition, and forecasters rate the 2026 race Solid Democratic or Safe D with no credible GOP challenger emerging ahead of the November 3 contest. This structural advantage drives the current trader consensus of roughly 95 percent probability for a Democratic victory. The Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 could alter the nominee but is unlikely to shift the general-election outcome. Only an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift would realistically threaten the district’s partisan alignment before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,057 Vol.
95%
共和党
$17,142 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th Congressional District maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 against minimal Republican opposition, and forecasters rate the 2026 race Solid Democratic or Safe D with no credible GOP challenger emerging ahead of the November 3 contest. This structural advantage drives the current trader consensus of roughly 95 percent probability for a Democratic victory. The Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 could alter the nominee but is unlikely to shift the general-election outcome. Only an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift would realistically threaten the district’s partisan alignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th Congressional District maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 against minimal Republican opposition, and forecasters rate the 2026 race Solid Democratic or Safe D with no credible GOP challenger emerging ahead of the November 3 contest. This structural advantage drives the current trader consensus of roughly 95 percent probability for a Democratic victory. The Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 could alter the nominee but is unlikely to shift the general-election outcome. Only an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift would realistically threaten the district’s partisan alignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th Congressional District maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 against minimal Republican opposition, and forecasters rate the 2026 race Solid Democratic or Safe D with no credible GOP challenger emerging ahead of the November 3 contest. This structural advantage drives the current trader consensus of roughly 95 percent probability for a Democratic victory. The Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 could alter the nominee but is unlikely to shift the general-election outcome. Only an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift would realistically threaten the district’s partisan alignment before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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