The Democratic Party holds a commanding 94.8% implied probability in the MD-04 House race, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean in Prince George's County suburbs and incumbent Glenn Ivey's established position. Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 88% in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against lesser-funded challengers while a low-profile Republican nominee prepares for the November general election. The seat's partisan voting index and historical results underscore limited crossover appeal for GOP candidates. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from an upset in the Democratic primary, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national political realignment altering turnout patterns before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,057 Vol.
94%
共和党
$17,142 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 94.8% implied probability in the MD-04 House race, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean in Prince George's County suburbs and incumbent Glenn Ivey's established position. Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 88% in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against lesser-funded challengers while a low-profile Republican nominee prepares for the November general election. The seat's partisan voting index and historical results underscore limited crossover appeal for GOP candidates. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from an upset in the Democratic primary, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national political realignment altering turnout patterns before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 94.8% implied probability in the MD-04 House race, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean in Prince George's County suburbs and incumbent Glenn Ivey's established position. Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 88% in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against lesser-funded challengers while a low-profile Republican nominee prepares for the November general election. The seat's partisan voting index and historical results underscore limited crossover appeal for GOP candidates. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from an upset in the Democratic primary, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national political realignment altering turnout patterns before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 94.8% implied probability in the MD-04 House race, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean in Prince George's County suburbs and incumbent Glenn Ivey's established position. Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 88% in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against lesser-funded challengers while a low-profile Republican nominee prepares for the November general election. The seat's partisan voting index and historical results underscore limited crossover appeal for GOP candidates. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from an upset in the Democratic primary, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national political realignment altering turnout patterns before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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