Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance in Prince George’s County suburbs. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured re-election in 2024 with over 88 percent of the vote and faces only intra-party competition ahead of the June 23 primary, while the Republican side offers limited visibility through presumptive nominee George McDermott. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors, including historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected changes in district boundaries before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$25,199 Vol.
$25,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,057 Vol.
95%
共和党
$17,142 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance in Prince George’s County suburbs. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured re-election in 2024 with over 88 percent of the vote and faces only intra-party competition ahead of the June 23 primary, while the Republican side offers limited visibility through presumptive nominee George McDermott. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors, including historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected changes in district boundaries before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance in Prince George’s County suburbs. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured re-election in 2024 with over 88 percent of the vote and faces only intra-party competition ahead of the June 23 primary, while the Republican side offers limited visibility through presumptive nominee George McDermott. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors, including historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected changes in district boundaries before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance in Prince George’s County suburbs. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured re-election in 2024 with over 88 percent of the vote and faces only intra-party competition ahead of the June 23 primary, while the Republican side offers limited visibility through presumptive nominee George McDermott. Trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors, including historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected changes in district boundaries before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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