Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar faces a limited field of Democratic primary challengers in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election. The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Moolenaar's 65 percent victory in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Moolenaar's January 2026 re-election announcement and fundraising advantage further reinforce this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a national Democratic surge shifting turnout in rural and suburban areas or an unusually strong primary winner consolidating opposition support, though structural factors and historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$42,903 Vol.
$42,903 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$42,903 Vol.
$42,903 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$21,645 Vol.
95%
民主党
$21,258 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar faces a limited field of Democratic primary challengers in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election. The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Moolenaar's 65 percent victory in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Moolenaar's January 2026 re-election announcement and fundraising advantage further reinforce this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a national Democratic surge shifting turnout in rural and suburban areas or an unusually strong primary winner consolidating opposition support, though structural factors and historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$42,903終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar faces a limited field of Democratic primary challengers in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election. The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Moolenaar's 65 percent victory in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Moolenaar's January 2026 re-election announcement and fundraising advantage further reinforce this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a national Democratic surge shifting turnout in rural and suburban areas or an unusually strong primary winner consolidating opposition support, though structural factors and historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$42,903終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar faces a limited field of Democratic primary challengers in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election. The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Moolenaar's 65 percent victory in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Moolenaar's January 2026 re-election announcement and fundraising advantage further reinforce this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a national Democratic surge shifting turnout in rural and suburban areas or an unusually strong primary winner consolidating opposition support, though structural factors and historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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