Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic victory in NY-17 at 61%, reflecting the Hudson Valley district's slight D+1 partisan voter index and Republican incumbent Mike Lawler's narrow wins in 2022 and 2024 amid competitive races. Recent March polling shows Beth Davidson leading the crowded Democratic primary at 23%—six points ahead of Cait Conley—with 45% undecided, signaling potential for a strong nominee ahead of the June 23 primary. Lawler's strong fundraising contrasts with vulnerabilities exposed in February town halls over ICE tactics, while crowded primaries risk Democratic unity but underscore enthusiasm in this toss-up rated by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican. National midterm dynamics could further tilt the battleground toward Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
69%
共和党
30%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$198 Vol.
69%
共和党
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic victory in NY-17 at 61%, reflecting the Hudson Valley district's slight D+1 partisan voter index and Republican incumbent Mike Lawler's narrow wins in 2022 and 2024 amid competitive races. Recent March polling shows Beth Davidson leading the crowded Democratic primary at 23%—six points ahead of Cait Conley—with 45% undecided, signaling potential for a strong nominee ahead of the June 23 primary. Lawler's strong fundraising contrasts with vulnerabilities exposed in February town halls over ICE tactics, while crowded primaries risk Democratic unity but underscore enthusiasm in this toss-up rated by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican. National midterm dynamics could further tilt the battleground toward Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$198終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic victory in NY-17 at 61%, reflecting the Hudson Valley district's slight D+1 partisan voter index and Republican incumbent Mike Lawler's narrow wins in 2022 and 2024 amid competitive races. Recent March polling shows Beth Davidson leading the crowded Democratic primary at 23%—six points ahead of Cait Conley—with 45% undecided, signaling potential for a strong nominee ahead of the June 23 primary. Lawler's strong fundraising contrasts with vulnerabilities exposed in February town halls over ICE tactics, while crowded primaries risk Democratic unity but underscore enthusiasm in this toss-up rated by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican. National midterm dynamics could further tilt the battleground toward Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$198終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic victory in NY-17 at 61%, reflecting the Hudson Valley district's slight D+1 partisan voter index and Republican incumbent Mike Lawler's narrow wins in 2022 and 2024 amid competitive races. Recent March polling shows Beth Davidson leading the crowded Democratic primary at 23%—six points ahead of Cait Conley—with 45% undecided, signaling potential for a strong nominee ahead of the June 23 primary. Lawler's strong fundraising contrasts with vulnerabilities exposed in February town halls over ICE tactics, while crowded primaries risk Democratic unity but underscore enthusiasm in this toss-up rated by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican. National midterm dynamics could further tilt the battleground toward Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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