Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5¢ in NJ-04, driven by long-serving incumbent Chris Smith running unopposed in the June 2 Republican primary after challenger Rob Canfield failed signature requirements. The district's R+14 partisan lean, Smith's 67% 2024 general election margin, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this dominance, bolstered by his $412,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025. New Jersey certified the primary ballot on April 2, confirming a thin Democratic field of Rachel Peace and John Blake amid petition challenges. While improbable, shifts could arise from a scandal, health event, or national midterm backlash before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
91%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5¢ in NJ-04, driven by long-serving incumbent Chris Smith running unopposed in the June 2 Republican primary after challenger Rob Canfield failed signature requirements. The district's R+14 partisan lean, Smith's 67% 2024 general election margin, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this dominance, bolstered by his $412,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025. New Jersey certified the primary ballot on April 2, confirming a thin Democratic field of Rachel Peace and John Blake amid petition challenges. While improbable, shifts could arise from a scandal, health event, or national midterm backlash before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5¢ in NJ-04, driven by long-serving incumbent Chris Smith running unopposed in the June 2 Republican primary after challenger Rob Canfield failed signature requirements. The district's R+14 partisan lean, Smith's 67% 2024 general election margin, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this dominance, bolstered by his $412,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025. New Jersey certified the primary ballot on April 2, confirming a thin Democratic field of Rachel Peace and John Blake amid petition challenges. While improbable, shifts could arise from a scandal, health event, or national midterm backlash before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5¢ in NJ-04, driven by long-serving incumbent Chris Smith running unopposed in the June 2 Republican primary after challenger Rob Canfield failed signature requirements. The district's R+14 partisan lean, Smith's 67% 2024 general election margin, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this dominance, bolstered by his $412,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025. New Jersey certified the primary ballot on April 2, confirming a thin Democratic field of Rachel Peace and John Blake amid petition challenges. While improbable, shifts could arise from a scandal, health event, or national midterm backlash before the November 3 general election.
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