**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder's commanding position in California's 9th Congressional District, bolstered by post-redistricting boundaries favoring his party, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House election winner.** Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, citing Harder's narrow 2024 reelection victory followed by map changes that reduce vulnerability in San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. The June 2 top-two primary pits Harder against Republicans like John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, Parminder Singh, and Kevin Lincoln, with expectations of Harder advancing easily to November's general election. Scenarios challenging this include a unified GOP primary surge by a high-fundraising challenger, Democratic infighting yielding two Republicans in the general, national midterm wave dynamics, or late scandals, legal issues, or health events affecting Harder.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,860 Vol.
91%
共和党
$2,534 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder's commanding position in California's 9th Congressional District, bolstered by post-redistricting boundaries favoring his party, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House election winner.** Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, citing Harder's narrow 2024 reelection victory followed by map changes that reduce vulnerability in San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. The June 2 top-two primary pits Harder against Republicans like John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, Parminder Singh, and Kevin Lincoln, with expectations of Harder advancing easily to November's general election. Scenarios challenging this include a unified GOP primary surge by a high-fundraising challenger, Democratic infighting yielding two Republicans in the general, national midterm wave dynamics, or late scandals, legal issues, or health events affecting Harder.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$8,394終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder's commanding position in California's 9th Congressional District, bolstered by post-redistricting boundaries favoring his party, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House election winner.** Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, citing Harder's narrow 2024 reelection victory followed by map changes that reduce vulnerability in San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. The June 2 top-two primary pits Harder against Republicans like John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, Parminder Singh, and Kevin Lincoln, with expectations of Harder advancing easily to November's general election. Scenarios challenging this include a unified GOP primary surge by a high-fundraising challenger, Democratic infighting yielding two Republicans in the general, national midterm wave dynamics, or late scandals, legal issues, or health events affecting Harder.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,394終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder's commanding position in California's 9th Congressional District, bolstered by post-redistricting boundaries favoring his party, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House election winner.** Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, citing Harder's narrow 2024 reelection victory followed by map changes that reduce vulnerability in San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. The June 2 top-two primary pits Harder against Republicans like John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, Parminder Singh, and Kevin Lincoln, with expectations of Harder advancing easily to November's general election. Scenarios challenging this include a unified GOP primary surge by a high-fundraising challenger, Democratic infighting yielding two Republicans in the general, national midterm wave dynamics, or late scandals, legal issues, or health events affecting Harder.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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