Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the June primary and November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, combined with Harder's established incumbency and fundraising edge, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Multiple Republican challengers are competing in the nonpartisan primary, but historical voting patterns and independent race ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report designate the seat as solid Democratic. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include a surprisingly competitive primary result or significant late-cycle developments affecting voter turnout in this Central Valley area.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,756 Vol.
$11,756 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
$11,756 Vol.
$11,756 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,166 Vol.
91%
共和党
$2,590 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the June primary and November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, combined with Harder's established incumbency and fundraising edge, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Multiple Republican challengers are competing in the nonpartisan primary, but historical voting patterns and independent race ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report designate the seat as solid Democratic. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include a surprisingly competitive primary result or significant late-cycle developments affecting voter turnout in this Central Valley area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$11,756終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the June primary and November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, combined with Harder's established incumbency and fundraising edge, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Multiple Republican challengers are competing in the nonpartisan primary, but historical voting patterns and independent race ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report designate the seat as solid Democratic. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include a surprisingly competitive primary result or significant late-cycle developments affecting voter turnout in this Central Valley area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,756終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district ahead of the June primary and November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, combined with Harder's established incumbency and fundraising edge, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Multiple Republican challengers are competing in the nonpartisan primary, but historical voting patterns and independent race ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report designate the seat as solid Democratic. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include a surprisingly competitive primary result or significant late-cycle developments affecting voter turnout in this Central Valley area.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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