Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% for Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 Partisan Voting Index and long-serving incumbent Morgan Griffith's unchallenged path to renomination after repeated landslide victories. Recent Democratic primary announcements—including Adam Murphy in January 2026, Douglas Crockett in February, and others like Joy Powers—have fragmented the opposition field ahead of the August 4 primary, with no polling indicating competitiveness. Griffith faces no notable Republican challengers, reinforcing structural advantages in this rural, conservative stronghold. Scenarios to challenge include a scandal or health issue for the incumbent, a consolidated Democratic nominee surging on national midterm trends, or unexpected redistricting impacts from Virginia's ongoing map disputes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$4,111 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% for Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 Partisan Voting Index and long-serving incumbent Morgan Griffith's unchallenged path to renomination after repeated landslide victories. Recent Democratic primary announcements—including Adam Murphy in January 2026, Douglas Crockett in February, and others like Joy Powers—have fragmented the opposition field ahead of the August 4 primary, with no polling indicating competitiveness. Griffith faces no notable Republican challengers, reinforcing structural advantages in this rural, conservative stronghold. Scenarios to challenge include a scandal or health issue for the incumbent, a consolidated Democratic nominee surging on national midterm trends, or unexpected redistricting impacts from Virginia's ongoing map disputes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$4,111終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% for Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 Partisan Voting Index and long-serving incumbent Morgan Griffith's unchallenged path to renomination after repeated landslide victories. Recent Democratic primary announcements—including Adam Murphy in January 2026, Douglas Crockett in February, and others like Joy Powers—have fragmented the opposition field ahead of the August 4 primary, with no polling indicating competitiveness. Griffith faces no notable Republican challengers, reinforcing structural advantages in this rural, conservative stronghold. Scenarios to challenge include a scandal or health issue for the incumbent, a consolidated Democratic nominee surging on national midterm trends, or unexpected redistricting impacts from Virginia's ongoing map disputes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,111終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% for Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 Partisan Voting Index and long-serving incumbent Morgan Griffith's unchallenged path to renomination after repeated landslide victories. Recent Democratic primary announcements—including Adam Murphy in January 2026, Douglas Crockett in February, and others like Joy Powers—have fragmented the opposition field ahead of the August 4 primary, with no polling indicating competitiveness. Griffith faces no notable Republican challengers, reinforcing structural advantages in this rural, conservative stronghold. Scenarios to challenge include a scandal or health issue for the incumbent, a consolidated Democratic nominee surging on national midterm trends, or unexpected redistricting impacts from Virginia's ongoing map disputes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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