Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in California’s 18th district, facing Republican Shane Lewis in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns, including Lofgren’s 2024 margin exceeding 29 points, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpected turnout changes could still narrow the margin, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,355 Vol.
$35,355 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
4%
$35,355 Vol.
$35,355 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$16,690 Vol.
93%
共和党
$18,665 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in California’s 18th district, facing Republican Shane Lewis in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns, including Lofgren’s 2024 margin exceeding 29 points, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpected turnout changes could still narrow the margin, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$35,355終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in California’s 18th district, facing Republican Shane Lewis in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns, including Lofgren’s 2024 margin exceeding 29 points, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpected turnout changes could still narrow the margin, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,355終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in California’s 18th district, facing Republican Shane Lewis in the November general election. The district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns, including Lofgren’s 2024 margin exceeding 29 points, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, with no recent polling or developments indicating a competitive shift. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpected turnout changes could still narrow the margin, though structural factors limit such scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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