Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus toward a 94.7% Democratic win in the CA-18 House race, reflecting the district's deep-blue Silicon Valley base with Democratic voter registration advantages and historical margins exceeding 30 points. Lofgren, a long-serving congresswoman, faces Democratic challengers like Luis Arreguin and no-party-preference candidate Chris Demers, alongside Republican Shane Lewis, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats or a Democrat against a weak GOP contender. Absent polling shows no competitive threat, solidified post-2025 Prop 50 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary surprise advancing Lewis paired with national midterm swings, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,460 Vol.
$34,460 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$34,460 Vol.
$34,460 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$16,688 Vol.
95%
共和党
$17,772 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus toward a 94.7% Democratic win in the CA-18 House race, reflecting the district's deep-blue Silicon Valley base with Democratic voter registration advantages and historical margins exceeding 30 points. Lofgren, a long-serving congresswoman, faces Democratic challengers like Luis Arreguin and no-party-preference candidate Chris Demers, alongside Republican Shane Lewis, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats or a Democrat against a weak GOP contender. Absent polling shows no competitive threat, solidified post-2025 Prop 50 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary surprise advancing Lewis paired with national midterm swings, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$34,460終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus toward a 94.7% Democratic win in the CA-18 House race, reflecting the district's deep-blue Silicon Valley base with Democratic voter registration advantages and historical margins exceeding 30 points. Lofgren, a long-serving congresswoman, faces Democratic challengers like Luis Arreguin and no-party-preference candidate Chris Demers, alongside Republican Shane Lewis, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats or a Democrat against a weak GOP contender. Absent polling shows no competitive threat, solidified post-2025 Prop 50 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary surprise advancing Lewis paired with national midterm swings, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,460終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus toward a 94.7% Democratic win in the CA-18 House race, reflecting the district's deep-blue Silicon Valley base with Democratic voter registration advantages and historical margins exceeding 30 points. Lofgren, a long-serving congresswoman, faces Democratic challengers like Luis Arreguin and no-party-preference candidate Chris Demers, alongside Republican Shane Lewis, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats or a Democrat against a weak GOP contender. Absent polling shows no competitive threat, solidified post-2025 Prop 50 redistricting. Upsets would require a primary surprise advancing Lewis paired with national midterm swings, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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