The Illinois 12th congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins, underpins trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost advanced unopposed through the March 17 Republican primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier did the same on the opposing side, leaving limited Democratic viability amid the district’s voter composition and base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, highlighting structural advantages that have held through recent cycles. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major scandals before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,257 Vol.
$18,257 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
4%
$18,257 Vol.
$18,257 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,790 Vol.
94%
民主党
$10,467 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins, underpins trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost advanced unopposed through the March 17 Republican primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier did the same on the opposing side, leaving limited Democratic viability amid the district’s voter composition and base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, highlighting structural advantages that have held through recent cycles. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major scandals before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$18,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins, underpins trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost advanced unopposed through the March 17 Republican primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier did the same on the opposing side, leaving limited Democratic viability amid the district’s voter composition and base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, highlighting structural advantages that have held through recent cycles. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major scandals before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 12th congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+22 partisan voting index and consistent historical margins, underpins trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost advanced unopposed through the March 17 Republican primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier did the same on the opposing side, leaving limited Democratic viability amid the district’s voter composition and base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, highlighting structural advantages that have held through recent cycles. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major scandals before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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