The Illinois 12th congressional district’s R+22 partisan voting index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured an uncontested Republican nomination in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier advanced as the challenger in a rural southern Illinois seat where the Republican received more than 74 percent of the vote in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic viability and standard base rates for incumbents in comparable terrain. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong national partisan wave that alters turnout patterns in this low-competition district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,257 Vol.
$18,257 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
4%
$18,257 Vol.
$18,257 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,790 Vol.
94%
民主党
$10,467 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district’s R+22 partisan voting index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured an uncontested Republican nomination in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier advanced as the challenger in a rural southern Illinois seat where the Republican received more than 74 percent of the vote in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic viability and standard base rates for incumbents in comparable terrain. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong national partisan wave that alters turnout patterns in this low-competition district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$18,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district’s R+22 partisan voting index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured an uncontested Republican nomination in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier advanced as the challenger in a rural southern Illinois seat where the Republican received more than 74 percent of the vote in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic viability and standard base rates for incumbents in comparable terrain. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong national partisan wave that alters turnout patterns in this low-competition district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 12th congressional district’s R+22 partisan voting index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured an uncontested Republican nomination in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier advanced as the challenger in a rural southern Illinois seat where the Republican received more than 74 percent of the vote in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic viability and standard base rates for incumbents in comparable terrain. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major scandal, significant health event affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong national partisan wave that alters turnout patterns in this low-competition district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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