Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in Illinois' 12th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+21) and his entrenched incumbency advantage as House Republican Conference Chair. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys from October showing Bost ahead by 25-30 points over Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Bevis, have solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for the GOP, underscoring minimal Democratic path to victory absent a major upset. Early voting trends favor Republicans, with no recent scandals or shifts altering dynamics ahead of the November 5 election. Barring late-breaking events like a health issue or indictment, the outcome appears locked, though recounts remain possible in close tallies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
91%
民主党
$1,160 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in Illinois' 12th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+21) and his entrenched incumbency advantage as House Republican Conference Chair. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys from October showing Bost ahead by 25-30 points over Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Bevis, have solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for the GOP, underscoring minimal Democratic path to victory absent a major upset. Early voting trends favor Republicans, with no recent scandals or shifts altering dynamics ahead of the November 5 election. Barring late-breaking events like a health issue or indictment, the outcome appears locked, though recounts remain possible in close tallies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$1,160終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in Illinois' 12th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+21) and his entrenched incumbency advantage as House Republican Conference Chair. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys from October showing Bost ahead by 25-30 points over Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Bevis, have solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for the GOP, underscoring minimal Democratic path to victory absent a major upset. Early voting trends favor Republicans, with no recent scandals or shifts altering dynamics ahead of the November 5 election. Barring late-breaking events like a health issue or indictment, the outcome appears locked, though recounts remain possible in close tallies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,160終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in Illinois' 12th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+21) and his entrenched incumbency advantage as House Republican Conference Chair. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys from October showing Bost ahead by 25-30 points over Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Bevis, have solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for the GOP, underscoring minimal Democratic path to victory absent a major upset. Early voting trends favor Republicans, with no recent scandals or shifts altering dynamics ahead of the November 5 election. Barring late-breaking events like a health issue or indictment, the outcome appears locked, though recounts remain possible in close tallies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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