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Geopolitics·Venezuela

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Venezuela

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

5% chance
Polymarket

$123,419 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$123,419 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming skepticism toward Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood, with "No" shares implying 94.8% probability amid insurmountable constitutional and political barriers. Despite President Trump's mid-March 2026 quips floating the idea—sparked by Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—no formal annexation proposals have advanced in Congress, which holds sole authority under Article IV to admit new states via legislation following a territory petition. Recent U.S. military actions, including January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, have installed an interim government under U.S. influence, prompting war powers resolutions from Senate Democrats and some Republicans to curb executive overreach, but Venezuelan officials reject sovereignty loss. Absent bilateral agreements, public referendums, or legislative momentum, traders price this fringe scenario as virtually impossible before any resolution deadline.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming skepticism toward Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood, with "No" shares implying 94.8% probability amid insurmountable constitutional and political barriers. Despite President Trump's mid-March 2026 quips floating the idea—sparked by Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—no formal annexation proposals have advanced in Congress, which holds sole authority under Article IV to admit new states via legislation following a territory petition. Recent U.S. military actions, including January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, have installed an interim government under U.S. influence, prompting war powers resolutions from Senate Democrats and some Republicans to curb executive overreach, but Venezuelan officials reject sovereignty loss. Absent bilateral agreements, public referendums, or legislative momentum, traders price this fringe scenario as virtually impossible before any resolution deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming skepticism toward Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood, with "No" shares implying 94.8% probability amid insurmountable constitutional and political barriers. Despite President Trump's mid-March 2026 quips floating the idea—sparked by Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—no formal annexation proposals have advanced in Congress, which holds sole authority under Article IV to admit new states via legislation following a territory petition. Recent U.S. military actions, including January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, have installed an interim government under U.S. influence, prompting war powers resolutions from Senate Democrats and some Republicans to curb executive overreach, but Venezuelan officials reject sovereignty loss. Absent bilateral agreements, public referendums, or legislative momentum, traders price this fringe scenario as virtually impossible before any resolution deadline.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming skepticism toward Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood, with "No" shares implying 94.8% probability amid insurmountable constitutional and political barriers. Despite President Trump's mid-March 2026 quips floating the idea—sparked by Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—no formal annexation proposals have advanced in Congress, which holds sole authority under Article IV to admit new states via legislation following a territory petition. Recent U.S. military actions, including January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, have installed an interim government under U.S. influence, prompting war powers resolutions from Senate Democrats and some Republicans to curb executive overreach, but Venezuelan officials reject sovereignty loss. Absent bilateral agreements, public referendums, or legislative momentum, traders price this fringe scenario as virtually impossible before any resolution deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Venezuela become 51st state?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Venezuela become 51st state?" has generated $123.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Venezuela become 51st state?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Venezuela become 51st state?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Venezuela become 51st state?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.