Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Politics·World

Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?

Name: Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?
Start: 2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Jun 20, 2025

<1% chance

$494,636 Vol.

Jun 20, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel officially declares war on Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying declaration must be explicit and formal, issued through official Israeli government channels, and must clearly state that Israel is at war with Iran. General statements about conflict, military operations, or threats do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war. Only statements made by the Israeli government qualify. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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