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World·Global Elections

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

12% chance
Polymarket

$33,388 Vol.

12% chance
Polymarket

$33,388 Vol.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including Invamer's October survey, show Colombia's leading presidential contenders—such as Vicky Dávila at 22%, Germán Vargas Lleras at 18%, and Claudia López at 17%—far short of the 50% threshold required for an outright first-round win on March 1, 2026, reinforcing trader consensus at 88.5% for "No." The field remains deeply fragmented among over 20 potential candidates from parties like Centro Democrático, Verde, and Cambio Radical, with no dominant frontrunner emerging despite President Petro's low approval ratings fueling opposition momentum. Historical precedent favors runoffs, as no candidate has won outright since Álvaro Uribe in 2002. Candidate registrations close November 26, after which formal campaigning intensifies, but current polling averages indicate scant path to majority support.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$33,388
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including Invamer's October survey, show Colombia's leading presidential contenders—such as Vicky Dávila at 22%, Germán Vargas Lleras at 18%, and Claudia López at 17%—far short of the 50% threshold required for an outright first-round win on March 1, 2026, reinforcing trader consensus at 88.5% for "No." The field remains deeply fragmented among over 20 potential candidates from parties like Centro Democrático, Verde, and Cambio Radical, with no dominant frontrunner emerging despite President Petro's low approval ratings fueling opposition momentum. Historical precedent favors runoffs, as no candidate has won outright since Álvaro Uribe in 2002. Candidate registrations close November 26, after which formal campaigning intensifies, but current polling averages indicate scant path to majority support.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$33,388
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?" has generated $33.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.