Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrike campaign against Iran—now over a month since its February 28 launch—no foreign ground forces or high-profile officials have physically entered Iranian terrestrial territory, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for outcomes like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, congressional members, or Benjamin Netanyahu visiting by June 30. Recent escalations include Yemen's Houthis attacking Israel, US Marines deploying to the region, and Iran's warnings of US ground invasion plans, countered by Hegseth's recent Middle East troop visit and statements on "decisive" days ahead with 200 overnight strikes. Pakistan's preparations to host peace talks represent a key upcoming diplomatic catalyst that could de-escalate or prolong hostilities, influencing resolution prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$219,927 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Pete Hegseth
7%
Any U.S. Senator
7%
Any U.S. House member
7%
JD Vance
6%
Marco Rubio
6%
Jared Kushner
6%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$219,927 Vol.
Pete Hegseth
$42,708 Vol.
7%
Any U.S. Senator
$21,052 Vol.
7%
Any U.S. House member
$50,719 Vol.
7%
JD Vance
$6,392 Vol.
6%
Marco Rubio
$11,681 Vol.
6%
Jared Kushner
$9,164 Vol.
6%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$21,260 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$56,951 Vol.
3%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrike campaign against Iran—now over a month since its February 28 launch—no foreign ground forces or high-profile officials have physically entered Iranian terrestrial territory, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for outcomes like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, congressional members, or Benjamin Netanyahu visiting by June 30. Recent escalations include Yemen's Houthis attacking Israel, US Marines deploying to the region, and Iran's warnings of US ground invasion plans, countered by Hegseth's recent Middle East troop visit and statements on "decisive" days ahead with 200 overnight strikes. Pakistan's preparations to host peace talks represent a key upcoming diplomatic catalyst that could de-escalate or prolong hostilities, influencing resolution prospects.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$219,927End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrike campaign against Iran—now over a month since its February 28 launch—no foreign ground forces or high-profile officials have physically entered Iranian terrestrial territory, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for outcomes like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, congressional members, or Benjamin Netanyahu visiting by June 30. Recent escalations include Yemen's Houthis attacking Israel, US Marines deploying to the region, and Iran's warnings of US ground invasion plans, countered by Hegseth's recent Middle East troop visit and statements on "decisive" days ahead with 200 overnight strikes. Pakistan's preparations to host peace talks represent a key upcoming diplomatic catalyst that could de-escalate or prolong hostilities, influencing resolution prospects.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$219,927End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrike campaign against Iran—now over a month since its February 28 launch—no foreign ground forces or high-profile officials have physically entered Iranian terrestrial territory, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for outcomes like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, congressional members, or Benjamin Netanyahu visiting by June 30. Recent escalations include Yemen's Houthis attacking Israel, US Marines deploying to the region, and Iran's warnings of US ground invasion plans, countered by Hegseth's recent Middle East troop visit and statements on "decisive" days ahead with 200 overnight strikes. Pakistan's preparations to host peace talks represent a key upcoming diplomatic catalyst that could de-escalate or prolong hostilities, influencing resolution prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions