Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 19%

Peter Chatzky 12.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.9%

Polymarket

$49,912 Vol.

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 19%

Peter Chatzky 12.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.9%

Polymarket

$49,912 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,142 Vol.

60%

Beth Davidson

$21,514 Vol.

19%

Peter Chatzky

$2,562 Vol.

12%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$0 Vol.

5%

John Cappello

$0 Vol.

3%

Mike Sacks

$0 Vol.

2%

John Sullivan

$0 Vol.

1%

Jessica Reinmann

$693 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her national security background, endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) and the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund (March 24), and prior polling positioning her as the strongest matchup against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in this swing district. Beth Davidson's 19.5% share reflects her Rockland County legislator experience and a March 16 Impact Research poll showing her leading amid 45% undecideds, but high name recognition gaps favor Conley's momentum. Peter Chatzky's 12% slipped after March 19 reports on past social media posts, despite $5 million self-funding, underscoring electability concerns in the crowded field.

Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her national security background, endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) and the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund (March 24), and prior polling positioning her as the strongest matchup against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in this swing district. Beth Davidson's 19.5% share reflects her Rockland County legislator experience and a March 16 Impact Research poll showing her leading amid 45% undecideds, but high name recognition gaps favor Conley's momentum. Peter Chatzky's 12% slipped after March 19 reports on past social media posts, despite $5 million self-funding, underscoring electability concerns in the crowded field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her national security background, endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) and the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund (March 24), and prior polling positioning her as the strongest matchup against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in this swing district. Beth Davidson's 19.5% share reflects her Rockland County legislator experience and a March 16 Impact Research poll showing her leading amid 45% undecideds, but high name recognition gaps favor Conley's momentum. Peter Chatzky's 12% slipped after March 19 reports on past social media posts, despite $5 million self-funding, underscoring electability concerns in the crowded field.

Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her national security background, endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) and the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund (March 24), and prior polling positioning her as the strongest matchup against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in this swing district. Beth Davidson's 19.5% share reflects her Rockland County legislator experience and a March 16 Impact Research poll showing her leading amid 45% undecideds, but high name recognition gaps favor Conley's momentum. Peter Chatzky's 12% slipped after March 19 reports on past social media posts, despite $5 million self-funding, underscoring electability concerns in the crowded field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

65%
Market icon

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

40%
Market icon

Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?

85%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 60%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $49.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Cait Conley" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.