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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 32%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 4.3%

Polymarket

$104,445 Vol.

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 32%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 4.3%

Polymarket

$104,445 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,468 Vol.

42%

Alex Bores

$2,831 Vol.

32%

Jack Schlossberg

$5,255 Vol.

19%

Erik Bottcher

$1,823 Vol.

4%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

2%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,801 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,789 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,255 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market on June 23 favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 42.5% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and super PAC commitments up to $5 million, including recent independent expenditures from Stand For New York PAC exceeding $700,000 since mid-March. Assemblyman Alex Bores trails closely at 32%, lifted by a major DC 37 union endorsement about five days ago, though his polling averages lag behind market pricing around 11-20%. Jack Schlossberg sits third at 19%, drawing on Kennedy family name recognition from early March surveys where he briefly led, in a fragmented 20-candidate field replacing retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Divergent early polls and rising ad spending highlight money and endorsements as key differentiators ahead of this Manhattan battleground contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,445
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market on June 23 favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 42.5% implied probability, propelled by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and super PAC commitments up to $5 million, including recent independent expenditures from Stand For New York PAC exceeding $700,000 since mid-March. Assemblyman Alex Bores trails closely at 32%, lifted by a major DC 37 union endorsement about five days ago, though his polling averages lag behind market pricing around 11-20%. Jack Schlossberg sits third at 19%, drawing on Kennedy family name recognition from early March surveys where he briefly led, in a fragmented 20-candidate field replacing retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Divergent early polls and rising ad spending highlight money and endorsements as key differentiators ahead of this Manhattan battleground contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,445
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 42%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $104.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Micah Lasher" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.