Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Name: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Start: 2026-01-07T21:35:17.019Z
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Snow-White · 2026-01-07T21:35:17.019Z

Discussion about Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 70%

New People (NL) 21.8%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6.4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.4%

$4,369,390 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026

United Russia (ER)

$1,211,694 Vol.

70%

New People (NL)

$274,637 Vol.

22%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$2,032,119 Vol.

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$248,428 Vol.

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$222,663 Vol.

<1%

Rodina

$192,361 Vol.

<1%

Civic Platform (GP)

$187,487 Vol.

<1%

United Russia (ER) 70%

New People (NL) 21.8%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6.4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.4%

$4,369,390 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026

United Russia (ER)

$1,211,694 Vol.

70%

New People (NL)

$274,637 Vol.

22%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$2,032,119 Vol.

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$248,428 Vol.

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$222,663 Vol.

<1%

Rodina

$192,361 Vol.

<1%

Civic Platform (GP)

$187,487 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Volume

$4,369,390

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Market Opened

Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

United Russia's entrenched dominance in Russian politics drives trader consensus at 70% implied probability for gaining the most seats in the 2026 State Duma election, bolstered by its sweeping victories in the September 8, 2024, regional elections where it secured 37 of 38 governorships and overwhelming legislative majorities amid patriotic fervor from the Ukraine conflict. The party's control over state media, administrative resources, and single-mandate districts historically translates proportional poll leads around 48% into supermajorities. New People trails at 21% on modest urban gains in regionals and positioning as a milder opposition alternative, though polls show it below 10%; systemic parties like LDPR (6%) and KPRF (1.5%) lag due to stagnant support and leadership transitions, with the mixed electoral system favoring incumbents ahead of the September vote.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 27, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

96%

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

36%

Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "United Russia (ER)" at 70%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" has generated $4.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is "United Russia (ER)" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $4.4 million traded on “Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 70¢ for "United Russia (ER)" in the "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 70% chance that "United Russia (ER)" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 70¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 30¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 20, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" market has an active community of 107 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

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