United States and Israeli forces have led a sustained air campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure since launching surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, with the IDF announcing on March 29 that its operation is nearly complete amid degraded Iranian capabilities. Trader consensus prices Yes shares below 5% for additional countries like Saudi Arabia (4%), UAE (3%), or UK/France (1%) to join by March 31, driven by no confirmed actions despite early threats from European powers and Gulf states facing Iranian missile barrages intercepted without retaliation. Recent heavy US-Israeli strikes on Tehran drew Iranian threats against US assets, but pending Pakistan-hosted talks today and a US ceasefire proposal via intermediaries signal de-escalation potential before the deadline, outweighing escalation risks from Houthi involvement or Strait of Hormuz tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,839,105 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
4%
UAE
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Kuwait
1%
Jordan
1%
UK
1%
Any E.U. Country
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Germany
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,839,105 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,208,405 Vol.
4%
UAE
$2,852,108 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,268 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,921 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$211,655 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$189,690 Vol.
1%
UK
$948,390 Vol.
1%
Any E.U. Country
$473,065 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$481,797 Vol.
1%
France
$750,279 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Germany
$912,746 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israeli forces have led a sustained air campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure since launching surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, with the IDF announcing on March 29 that its operation is nearly complete amid degraded Iranian capabilities. Trader consensus prices Yes shares below 5% for additional countries like Saudi Arabia (4%), UAE (3%), or UK/France (1%) to join by March 31, driven by no confirmed actions despite early threats from European powers and Gulf states facing Iranian missile barrages intercepted without retaliation. Recent heavy US-Israeli strikes on Tehran drew Iranian threats against US assets, but pending Pakistan-hosted talks today and a US ceasefire proposal via intermediaries signal de-escalation potential before the deadline, outweighing escalation risks from Houthi involvement or Strait of Hormuz tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,839,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israeli forces have led a sustained air campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure since launching surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, with the IDF announcing on March 29 that its operation is nearly complete amid degraded Iranian capabilities. Trader consensus prices Yes shares below 5% for additional countries like Saudi Arabia (4%), UAE (3%), or UK/France (1%) to join by March 31, driven by no confirmed actions despite early threats from European powers and Gulf states facing Iranian missile barrages intercepted without retaliation. Recent heavy US-Israeli strikes on Tehran drew Iranian threats against US assets, but pending Pakistan-hosted talks today and a US ceasefire proposal via intermediaries signal de-escalation potential before the deadline, outweighing escalation risks from Houthi involvement or Strait of Hormuz tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,839,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United States and Israeli forces have led a sustained air campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure since launching surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, with the IDF announcing on March 29 that its operation is nearly complete amid degraded Iranian capabilities. Trader consensus prices Yes shares below 5% for additional countries like Saudi Arabia (4%), UAE (3%), or UK/France (1%) to join by March 31, driven by no confirmed actions despite early threats from European powers and Gulf states facing Iranian missile barrages intercepted without retaliation. Recent heavy US-Israeli strikes on Tehran drew Iranian threats against US assets, but pending Pakistan-hosted talks today and a US ceasefire proposal via intermediaries signal de-escalation potential before the deadline, outweighing escalation risks from Houthi involvement or Strait of Hormuz tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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