US and Israel launched major strikes against Iran on February 28, killing the Supreme Leader and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, sparking a month-long conflict with Iranian missile barrages on Israeli cities and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and UAE have prepared for potential retaliation if their facilities are hit, while UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile assets amid regional escalation involving Houthis. As of March 29, no additional nations have acted, with Pakistan set to host US-Iran talks and Trump pausing energy strikes for diplomacy, tempering trader expectations for further military action before the March 31 deadline despite ongoing skirmishes and over 3,500 casualties reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,829,806 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
3%
UAE
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Any E.U. Country
1%
Jordan
1%
UK
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
<1%
Germany
<1%
$10,829,806 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,203,981 Vol.
3%
UAE
$2,849,866 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,104 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,798 Vol.
2%
Any E.U. Country
$472,045 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$189,646 Vol.
1%
UK
$948,387 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,526 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$481,794 Vol.
1%
France
$750,276 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,053 Vol.
1%
Canada
$339,302 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$912,029 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched major strikes against Iran on February 28, killing the Supreme Leader and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, sparking a month-long conflict with Iranian missile barrages on Israeli cities and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and UAE have prepared for potential retaliation if their facilities are hit, while UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile assets amid regional escalation involving Houthis. As of March 29, no additional nations have acted, with Pakistan set to host US-Iran talks and Trump pausing energy strikes for diplomacy, tempering trader expectations for further military action before the March 31 deadline despite ongoing skirmishes and over 3,500 casualties reported.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,829,806End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched major strikes against Iran on February 28, killing the Supreme Leader and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, sparking a month-long conflict with Iranian missile barrages on Israeli cities and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and UAE have prepared for potential retaliation if their facilities are hit, while UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile assets amid regional escalation involving Houthis. As of March 29, no additional nations have acted, with Pakistan set to host US-Iran talks and Trump pausing energy strikes for diplomacy, tempering trader expectations for further military action before the March 31 deadline despite ongoing skirmishes and over 3,500 casualties reported.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,829,806End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel launched major strikes against Iran on February 28, killing the Supreme Leader and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, sparking a month-long conflict with Iranian missile barrages on Israeli cities and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and UAE have prepared for potential retaliation if their facilities are hit, while UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile assets amid regional escalation involving Houthis. As of March 29, no additional nations have acted, with Pakistan set to host US-Iran talks and Trump pausing energy strikes for diplomacy, tempering trader expectations for further military action before the March 31 deadline despite ongoing skirmishes and over 3,500 casualties reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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