Tensions between Iran and Israel remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but Iran has refrained from direct retaliation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and proxy engagements via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in the Red Sea. Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements signal readiness for response to further Israeli actions, yet no concrete strike plans have emerged, with focus shifting to nuclear talks and sanctions under the incoming Trump administration. Upcoming events include potential escalation from ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations and January 20 inauguration, which could alter escalation risks before the March 31 deadline; markets reflect trader consensus on limited direct action probability amid deterrence factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Iran strike by March 31?
What will Iran strike by March 31?
$446,642 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
3%
Burj Khalifa
3%
Ghawar Field
8%
Safaniya Field
9%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
11%
Al Zour Refinery
11%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
10%
Ras Tanura
11%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
27%
$446,642 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$249,080 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,238 Vol.
3%
Ghawar Field
$30,324 Vol.
8%
Safaniya Field
$39,777 Vol.
9%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$38,803 Vol.
11%
Al Zour Refinery
$73,644 Vol.
11%
Leviathan Field
$796 Vol.
8%
Khurais Field
$4,323 Vol.
10%
Ras Tanura
$4,290 Vol.
11%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
8%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$0 Vol.
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,060 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but Iran has refrained from direct retaliation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and proxy engagements via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in the Red Sea. Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements signal readiness for response to further Israeli actions, yet no concrete strike plans have emerged, with focus shifting to nuclear talks and sanctions under the incoming Trump administration. Upcoming events include potential escalation from ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations and January 20 inauguration, which could alter escalation risks before the March 31 deadline; markets reflect trader consensus on limited direct action probability amid deterrence factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$446,642Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but Iran has refrained from direct retaliation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and proxy engagements via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in the Red Sea. Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements signal readiness for response to further Israeli actions, yet no concrete strike plans have emerged, with focus shifting to nuclear talks and sanctions under the incoming Trump administration. Upcoming events include potential escalation from ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations and January 20 inauguration, which could alter escalation risks before the March 31 deadline; markets reflect trader consensus on limited direct action probability amid deterrence factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$446,642Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and Israel remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but Iran has refrained from direct retaliation amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and proxy engagements via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in the Red Sea. Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements signal readiness for response to further Israeli actions, yet no concrete strike plans have emerged, with focus shifting to nuclear talks and sanctions under the incoming Trump administration. Upcoming events include potential escalation from ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations and January 20 inauguration, which could alter escalation risks before the March 31 deadline; markets reflect trader consensus on limited direct action probability amid deterrence factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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