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Elections·Primaries

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Shelley Moore Capito 97.6%

Tom Willis 1.6%

Alexander Gaasserud <1%

Polymarket

$14,942 Vol.

Shelley Moore Capito 97.6%

Tom Willis 1.6%

Alexander Gaasserud <1%

Polymarket

$14,942 Vol.

Shelley Moore Capito

$5,827 Vol.

98%

Tom Willis

$4,013 Vol.

2%

Alexander Gaasserud

$5,103 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands 97.8% implied probability in the West Virginia Republican Senate primary market, reflecting her entrenched incumbency advantage, superior fundraising, and recent West Virginia Chamber PAC endorsement on March 24 amid candidate filing deadlines in January-February. Challengers like state Senator Tom Willis (1.4%) and Alexander Gaaserud (0.3%) lack the resources, name recognition, or party support to mount a credible threat in the deep-red state's GOP primary on May 12, despite Willis raising around $400,000. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, health issue, or surprise challenger surge via high-profile endorsements or viral conservative attacks portraying her as insufficiently aligned with base priorities.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,942
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands 97.8% implied probability in the West Virginia Republican Senate primary market, reflecting her entrenched incumbency advantage, superior fundraising, and recent West Virginia Chamber PAC endorsement on March 24 amid candidate filing deadlines in January-February. Challengers like state Senator Tom Willis (1.4%) and Alexander Gaaserud (0.3%) lack the resources, name recognition, or party support to mount a credible threat in the deep-red state's GOP primary on May 12, despite Willis raising around $400,000. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, health issue, or surprise challenger surge via high-profile endorsements or viral conservative attacks portraying her as insufficiently aligned with base priorities.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,942
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Shelley Moore Capito" at 98%, followed by "Tom Willis" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $14.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Shelley Moore Capito" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Willis" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.