Skip to main content
Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner

AITC 52.3%

BJP 47.8%

CPI <1%

CPI(M) <1%

Polymarket

$1,907,733 Vol.

AITC 52.3%

BJP 47.8%

CPI <1%

CPI(M) <1%

Polymarket

$1,907,733 Vol.

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

AITC

$103,275 Vol.

52%

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

BJP

$164,644 Vol.

48%

Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

CPI

$793,310 Vol.

<1%

Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

CPI(M)

$30,875 Vol.

<1%

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

INC

$22,707 Vol.

<1%

Will the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? icon

BGPM

$792,922 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).With the West Bengal Legislative Assembly election's first phase polling just days away on April 23, trader consensus reflects a razor-thin edge for incumbent All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) at 52.3% over Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at 47.8%, driven by recent opinion polls showing TMC marginally ahead amid anti-incumbency from violence allegations, corruption claims, and urban discontent, offset by popular welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar cash transfers to women. BJP has surged via development promises, Matri Shakti incentives, national leader rallies, and appeals to Bengali asmita and Matua voters in battleground seats like Nandigram. Voter list revisions via Special Intensive Revision process and campaign clashes heighten uncertainty; Phase 1 turnout, last-minute incidents, or decisive endorsements could tip the balance toward majority government formation by May 4 counting.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
Volume
$1,907,733
End Date
Apr 29, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).With the West Bengal Legislative Assembly election's first phase polling just days away on April 23, trader consensus reflects a razor-thin edge for incumbent All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) at 52.3% over Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at 47.8%, driven by recent opinion polls showing TMC marginally ahead amid anti-incumbency from violence allegations, corruption claims, and urban discontent, offset by popular welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar cash transfers to women. BJP has surged via development promises, Matri Shakti incentives, national leader rallies, and appeals to Bengali asmita and Matua voters in battleground seats like Nandigram. Voter list revisions via Special Intensive Revision process and campaign clashes heighten uncertainty; Phase 1 turnout, last-minute incidents, or decisive endorsements could tip the balance toward majority government formation by May 4 counting.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
Volume
$1,907,733
End Date
Apr 29, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AITC" at 52%, followed by "BJP" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is "AITC" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "BJP" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.