US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified amid the ongoing air campaign against Iran, now in its fifth week since late February airstrikes by US and Israeli forces targeted Iranian missile sites and leadership. Over the past 48 hours, an additional 3,500 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne paratroopers—arrived, swelling total US forces to around 50,000 in the region, signaling preparations for potential ground operations per Pentagon reports. Diplomatic efforts falter, with President Trump pushing "serious discussions" and a looming deadline, while Iran deems US ceasefire terms unreasonable and warns its forces await American soldiers. Traders weigh escalation risks against negotiation breakthroughs ahead of any invasion decision, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran as of March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$58,829,155 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
2%
April 30
65%
December 31
75%
$58,829,155 Vol.
March 31
$39,415,875 Vol.
2%
April 30
$10,641,609 Vol.
65%
December 31
$6,699,677 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified amid the ongoing air campaign against Iran, now in its fifth week since late February airstrikes by US and Israeli forces targeted Iranian missile sites and leadership. Over the past 48 hours, an additional 3,500 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne paratroopers—arrived, swelling total US forces to around 50,000 in the region, signaling preparations for potential ground operations per Pentagon reports. Diplomatic efforts falter, with President Trump pushing "serious discussions" and a looming deadline, while Iran deems US ceasefire terms unreasonable and warns its forces await American soldiers. Traders weigh escalation risks against negotiation breakthroughs ahead of any invasion decision, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran as of March 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$58,829,155Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified amid the ongoing air campaign against Iran, now in its fifth week since late February airstrikes by US and Israeli forces targeted Iranian missile sites and leadership. Over the past 48 hours, an additional 3,500 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne paratroopers—arrived, swelling total US forces to around 50,000 in the region, signaling preparations for potential ground operations per Pentagon reports. Diplomatic efforts falter, with President Trump pushing "serious discussions" and a looming deadline, while Iran deems US ceasefire terms unreasonable and warns its forces await American soldiers. Traders weigh escalation risks against negotiation breakthroughs ahead of any invasion decision, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran as of March 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$58,829,155Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified amid the ongoing air campaign against Iran, now in its fifth week since late February airstrikes by US and Israeli forces targeted Iranian missile sites and leadership. Over the past 48 hours, an additional 3,500 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne paratroopers—arrived, swelling total US forces to around 50,000 in the region, signaling preparations for potential ground operations per Pentagon reports. Diplomatic efforts falter, with President Trump pushing "serious discussions" and a looming deadline, while Iran deems US ceasefire terms unreasonable and warns its forces await American soldiers. Traders weigh escalation risks against negotiation breakthroughs ahead of any invasion decision, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran as of March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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