In the wake of Texas' March 3 primaries sending both parties to May 26 runoffs, trader consensus slightly favors the Democratic Party at 55.5% to win the open TX-35 House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Likely Republican rating. GOP redistricting shifted the battleground district rightward—carrying Trump by over 10 points in 2024—yet its D+19 partisan voting index and Democratic overperformance history sustain competitiveness. Republican runoff pits State Rep. John Lujan (33%) against Trump-endorsed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27%); Democrats face family therapist Maureen Galindo (29%) versus sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia (27%). National Democratic targeting and nominee strength could tip the November general election balance amid midterm turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTX-35 House Election Winner
TX-35 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
54%
Republican Party
42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,009 Vol.
54%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In the wake of Texas' March 3 primaries sending both parties to May 26 runoffs, trader consensus slightly favors the Democratic Party at 55.5% to win the open TX-35 House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Likely Republican rating. GOP redistricting shifted the battleground district rightward—carrying Trump by over 10 points in 2024—yet its D+19 partisan voting index and Democratic overperformance history sustain competitiveness. Republican runoff pits State Rep. John Lujan (33%) against Trump-endorsed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27%); Democrats face family therapist Maureen Galindo (29%) versus sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia (27%). National Democratic targeting and nominee strength could tip the November general election balance amid midterm turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,009End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In the wake of Texas' March 3 primaries sending both parties to May 26 runoffs, trader consensus slightly favors the Democratic Party at 55.5% to win the open TX-35 House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Likely Republican rating. GOP redistricting shifted the battleground district rightward—carrying Trump by over 10 points in 2024—yet its D+19 partisan voting index and Democratic overperformance history sustain competitiveness. Republican runoff pits State Rep. John Lujan (33%) against Trump-endorsed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27%); Democrats face family therapist Maureen Galindo (29%) versus sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia (27%). National Democratic targeting and nominee strength could tip the November general election balance amid midterm turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,009End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the wake of Texas' March 3 primaries sending both parties to May 26 runoffs, trader consensus slightly favors the Democratic Party at 55.5% to win the open TX-35 House seat, diverging from Cook Political Report's Likely Republican rating. GOP redistricting shifted the battleground district rightward—carrying Trump by over 10 points in 2024—yet its D+19 partisan voting index and Democratic overperformance history sustain competitiveness. Republican runoff pits State Rep. John Lujan (33%) against Trump-endorsed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27%); Democrats face family therapist Maureen Galindo (29%) versus sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia (27%). National Democratic targeting and nominee strength could tip the November general election balance amid midterm turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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