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Politics·Primaries

TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner

Colin Allred 74%

Julie Johnson 25%

Carlos Quintanilla <1%

Zeeshan Hafeez <1%

Polymarket

$49,996 Vol.

Colin Allred 74%

Julie Johnson 25%

Carlos Quintanilla <1%

Zeeshan Hafeez <1%

Polymarket

$49,996 Vol.

Colin Allred

$25,611 Vol.

74%

Julie Johnson

$24,386 Vol.

25%

Carlos Quintanilla

$0 Vol.

<1%

Zeeshan Hafeez

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-33 Democratic Primary heavily favors Colin Allred at 73.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage as the district's sitting congressman, dominant fundraising exceeding $2 million, and consistent polling leads of 20+ points from recent FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH averages. State Rep. Julie Johnson holds 24.5% as the primary challenger, bolstered by endorsements from EMILY's List and progressive donors, though her support plateaus amid Allred's broad appeal to moderates in this Dallas-Fort Worth battleground. Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez languish at 0.1% each due to negligible name recognition and minimal campaign spending. Last week's release of Q1 FEC filings reinforced Allred's financial edge, while early voting begins soon ahead of the March 5 primary.

Trader consensus in the TX-33 Democratic Primary heavily favors Colin Allred at 73.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage as the district's sitting congressman, dominant fundraising exceeding $2 million, and consistent polling leads of 20+ points from recent FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH averages. State Rep. Julie Johnson holds 24.5% as the primary challenger, bolstered by endorsements from EMILY's List and progressive donors, though her support plateaus amid Allred's broad appeal to moderates in this Dallas-Fort Worth battleground. Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez languish at 0.1% each due to negligible name recognition and minimal campaign spending. Last week's release of Q1 FEC filings reinforced Allred's financial edge, while early voting begins soon ahead of the March 5 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-33 Democratic Primary heavily favors Colin Allred at 73.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage as the district's sitting congressman, dominant fundraising exceeding $2 million, and consistent polling leads of 20+ points from recent FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH averages. State Rep. Julie Johnson holds 24.5% as the primary challenger, bolstered by endorsements from EMILY's List and progressive donors, though her support plateaus amid Allred's broad appeal to moderates in this Dallas-Fort Worth battleground. Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez languish at 0.1% each due to negligible name recognition and minimal campaign spending. Last week's release of Q1 FEC filings reinforced Allred's financial edge, while early voting begins soon ahead of the March 5 primary.

Trader consensus in the TX-33 Democratic Primary heavily favors Colin Allred at 73.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage as the district's sitting congressman, dominant fundraising exceeding $2 million, and consistent polling leads of 20+ points from recent FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH averages. State Rep. Julie Johnson holds 24.5% as the primary challenger, bolstered by endorsements from EMILY's List and progressive donors, though her support plateaus amid Allred's broad appeal to moderates in this Dallas-Fort Worth battleground. Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez languish at 0.1% each due to negligible name recognition and minimal campaign spending. Last week's release of Q1 FEC filings reinforced Allred's financial edge, while early voting begins soon ahead of the March 5 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Colin Allred" at 74%, followed by "Julie Johnson" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $50K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Colin Allred" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Julie Johnson" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.