Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner

DMK 74%

ADMK 21.8%

TVK 5.4%

CPI(M) <1%

Polymarket

$239,932 Vol.

DMK 74%

ADMK 21.8%

TVK 5.4%

CPI(M) <1%

Polymarket

$239,932 Vol.

Market icon

DMK

$25,001 Vol.

74%

Market icon

ADMK

$22,169 Vol.

22%

Market icon

TVK

$34,270 Vol.

5%

Market icon

CPI(M)

$35,402 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

INC

$26,454 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

AITC

$18,827 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

DMDK

$12,329 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

BSP

$12,144 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

CPI

$13,064 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

NPEP

$12,372 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

BJP

$16,687 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

NCP

$11,215 Vol.

<1%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the incumbent DMK alliance at 73.5% implied probability to retain power in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 23, 2026, across 234 seats, driven by recent opinion polls like the Agni News Service survey projecting a decisive 180-seat victory and a pre-poll indicating 41.5% vote share for DMK. Smooth seat-sharing finalized March 24 allocates DMK 175 seats with allies taking 66, bolstering organizational strength under Chief Minister MK Stalin, who filed nomination from Kolathur this week amid active campaigning. AIADMK trails at 21.8% amid existential challenges, internal divisions, and ambitious manifesto promises like free refrigerators, though some trackers like CNN-News18 Vote Vibe show razor-thin seat projections of 115-125 versus DMK's 104-114. Actor Vijay's TVK garners 5.5% on debut enthusiasm but minimal 2-12 seats in surveys, reflecting untested appeal in a Dravidian-dominant bipolar contest. Kamal Haasan's MNM decision not to contest further consolidates votes for majors, with results expected May 4.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$239,932
End Date
Apr 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the incumbent DMK alliance at 73.5% implied probability to retain power in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 23, 2026, across 234 seats, driven by recent opinion polls like the Agni News Service survey projecting a decisive 180-seat victory and a pre-poll indicating 41.5% vote share for DMK. Smooth seat-sharing finalized March 24 allocates DMK 175 seats with allies taking 66, bolstering organizational strength under Chief Minister MK Stalin, who filed nomination from Kolathur this week amid active campaigning. AIADMK trails at 21.8% amid existential challenges, internal divisions, and ambitious manifesto promises like free refrigerators, though some trackers like CNN-News18 Vote Vibe show razor-thin seat projections of 115-125 versus DMK's 104-114. Actor Vijay's TVK garners 5.5% on debut enthusiasm but minimal 2-12 seats in surveys, reflecting untested appeal in a Dravidian-dominant bipolar contest. Kamal Haasan's MNM decision not to contest further consolidates votes for majors, with results expected May 4.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$239,932
End Date
Apr 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Related

Market icon

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

72%
Market icon

Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?

50%
Market icon

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

93%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "DMK" at 74%, followed by "ADMK" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner" has generated $239.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is "DMK" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ADMK" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.