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Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Smith 39%

Sam McCown 19%

Alex Pelbath 14%

Jack Ellison 6%

Polymarket
NEW

Mark Smith 39%

Sam McCown 19%

Alex Pelbath 14%

Jack Ellison 6%

Polymarket
NEW

Mark Smith

$0 Vol.

39%

Sam McCown

$0 Vol.

19%

Alex Pelbath

$1,152 Vol.

28%

Jack Ellison

$0 Vol.

6%

Logan Cunningham

$0 Vol.

2%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

$0 Vol.

2%

Jay Byars

$0 Vol.

2%

Justin Myers

$0 Vol.

<1%

Dan Brown

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the SC-01 Republican primary favors state House Majority Leader Mark Smith at 39% implied probability, reflecting his legislative experience and organizational advantages in the open race created by Rep. Nancy Mace's bid for governor. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails at 27.5%, buoyed by his military background and Trump conservative appeal following his official filing on March 18. Physician Sam McCown ranks third at 19%, positioning as an outsider alternative in the crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Recent filings since March 16 have sharpened focus ahead of the June 9 primary, with sentiment driven by candidate profiles amid absent public polls.

Trader consensus in the SC-01 Republican primary favors state House Majority Leader Mark Smith at 39% implied probability, reflecting his legislative experience and organizational advantages in the open race created by Rep. Nancy Mace's bid for governor. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails at 27.5%, buoyed by his military background and Trump conservative appeal following his official filing on March 18. Physician Sam McCown ranks third at 19%, positioning as an outsider alternative in the crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Recent filings since March 16 have sharpened focus ahead of the June 9 primary, with sentiment driven by candidate profiles amid absent public polls.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the SC-01 Republican primary favors state House Majority Leader Mark Smith at 39% implied probability, reflecting his legislative experience and organizational advantages in the open race created by Rep. Nancy Mace's bid for governor. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails at 27.5%, buoyed by his military background and Trump conservative appeal following his official filing on March 18. Physician Sam McCown ranks third at 19%, positioning as an outsider alternative in the crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Recent filings since March 16 have sharpened focus ahead of the June 9 primary, with sentiment driven by candidate profiles amid absent public polls.

Trader consensus in the SC-01 Republican primary favors state House Majority Leader Mark Smith at 39% implied probability, reflecting his legislative experience and organizational advantages in the open race created by Rep. Nancy Mace's bid for governor. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath trails at 27.5%, buoyed by his military background and Trump conservative appeal following his official filing on March 18. Physician Sam McCown ranks third at 19%, positioning as an outsider alternative in the crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Recent filings since March 16 have sharpened focus ahead of the June 9 primary, with sentiment driven by candidate profiles amid absent public polls.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Smith" at 39%, followed by "Alex Pelbath" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Smith" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Pelbath" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.