Trader consensus in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary on September 8 favors Aaron Guckian at 61% implied probability, driven by his experience as a former aide in ex-Gov. Don Carcieri's administration—the state's last GOP executive—and his 2022 lieutenant governor primary run, providing established name recognition and party ties absent in the field. Elaine Pelino holds 29% with strong conservative messaging on Second Amendment rights, school choice, and anti-sanctuary policies, amplified by her active campaigning and shared billing with Guckian at recent GOP events like the March 28 Smithfield rally. Robert Raimondo trails at 7% despite his January announcement and family name link to ex-Gov. Gina Raimondo, while prior candidate Ashley Kalus lingers at 6% without a firm 2026 commitment; no public polls or major endorsements have emerged to alter early dynamics.