Rhode Island's gubernatorial race favors the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability among traders, driven by the state's deep-blue political landscape where Democrats hold supermajorities in the legislature and voter registration exceeds 60% Democratic. Incumbent Governor Dan McKee, who won a full term in 2022 after succeeding Gina Raimondo, enjoys solid approval ratings around 50% with no major challengers emerging in Democratic primaries yet, while Republican field remains thin and historically uncompetitive—no GOP governor since Lincoln Almond left office in 1995. Recent polling averages from sources like TargetSmart show Democrats leading by 25-30 points statewide. Upsets would require a seismic scandal, McKee health issues, or a national Republican wave, though base rates for Democratic wins in Rhode Island exceed 90% over the past three decades; primaries conclude in September 2026 ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$0 Vol.
94%
Republican
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Rhode Island's gubernatorial race favors the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability among traders, driven by the state's deep-blue political landscape where Democrats hold supermajorities in the legislature and voter registration exceeds 60% Democratic. Incumbent Governor Dan McKee, who won a full term in 2022 after succeeding Gina Raimondo, enjoys solid approval ratings around 50% with no major challengers emerging in Democratic primaries yet, while Republican field remains thin and historically uncompetitive—no GOP governor since Lincoln Almond left office in 1995. Recent polling averages from sources like TargetSmart show Democrats leading by 25-30 points statewide. Upsets would require a seismic scandal, McKee health issues, or a national Republican wave, though base rates for Democratic wins in Rhode Island exceed 90% over the past three decades; primaries conclude in September 2026 ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Rhode Island's gubernatorial race favors the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability among traders, driven by the state's deep-blue political landscape where Democrats hold supermajorities in the legislature and voter registration exceeds 60% Democratic. Incumbent Governor Dan McKee, who won a full term in 2022 after succeeding Gina Raimondo, enjoys solid approval ratings around 50% with no major challengers emerging in Democratic primaries yet, while Republican field remains thin and historically uncompetitive—no GOP governor since Lincoln Almond left office in 1995. Recent polling averages from sources like TargetSmart show Democrats leading by 25-30 points statewide. Upsets would require a seismic scandal, McKee health issues, or a national Republican wave, though base rates for Democratic wins in Rhode Island exceed 90% over the past three decades; primaries conclude in September 2026 ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rhode Island's gubernatorial race favors the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability among traders, driven by the state's deep-blue political landscape where Democrats hold supermajorities in the legislature and voter registration exceeds 60% Democratic. Incumbent Governor Dan McKee, who won a full term in 2022 after succeeding Gina Raimondo, enjoys solid approval ratings around 50% with no major challengers emerging in Democratic primaries yet, while Republican field remains thin and historically uncompetitive—no GOP governor since Lincoln Almond left office in 1995. Recent polling averages from sources like TargetSmart show Democrats leading by 25-30 points statewide. Upsets would require a seismic scandal, McKee health issues, or a national Republican wave, though base rates for Democratic wins in Rhode Island exceed 90% over the past three decades; primaries conclude in September 2026 ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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