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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,947,203 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,947,203 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$7,950,043 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,778,148 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,328,050 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,820,588 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,480,930 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,668,250 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,846,666 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,003,792 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,168,690 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,916,439 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,450,725 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,928,434 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,578,812 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,615,574 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,088,355 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,071,411 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,442,221 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,132,345 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,258,405 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,256,027 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,140,455 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,660,236 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,373,909 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,579,269 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,983,307 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,967,632 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,957,398 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,538,913 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,319,251 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,522,915 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,025,988 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,017,314 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,594,688 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,253,129 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,229,331 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21.6%), amid an open primary field following President Trump's term limits. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict has dented Vance's anti-forever-war brand, with reports on March 20 noting his indecision on a run due to family priorities and odds dipping below 37% by March 23. Rubio has gained from his diplomatic role, fueling a shadow "draft Rubio" donor push (March 16) and Trump's informal polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio (February). Polls like JL Partners (March 5, Vance 53%) and New Hampshire surveys diverge from market pricing, underscoring uncertainty ahead of early primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,947,203
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21.6%), amid an open primary field following President Trump's term limits. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict has dented Vance's anti-forever-war brand, with reports on March 20 noting his indecision on a run due to family priorities and odds dipping below 37% by March 23. Rubio has gained from his diplomatic role, fueling a shadow "draft Rubio" donor push (March 16) and Trump's informal polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio (February). Polls like JL Partners (March 5, Vance 53%) and New Hampshire surveys diverge from market pricing, underscoring uncertainty ahead of early primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,947,203
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $503.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.