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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,898,887 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,898,887 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$7,948,888 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,778,105 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,327,936 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,819,144 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,480,800 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,665,816 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,844,453 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,003,782 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,168,690 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,916,439 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,449,941 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,916,031 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,578,812 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,615,574 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,087,354 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,071,310 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,441,891 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,132,254 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,254,720 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,254,992 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,140,455 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,659,374 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,373,234 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,579,158 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,983,307 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,964,049 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,957,398 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,537,193 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,316,699 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,520,854 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,024,857 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,016,017 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,594,092 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,252,266 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,226,880 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent cabinet role advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda through recent management enhancements and $100 million investments in public health recovery, appealing to anti-establishment GOP voters post his 2024 Trump endorsement. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5%, reinforced by his 53% win in the late-March CPAC straw poll as heir apparent amid Trump's term limits barring a third run. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.6% reflects a CPAC surge to 35% and reports of donors preferring him over Vance in private Trump polling, signaling early primary rivalries ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,898,887
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent cabinet role advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda through recent management enhancements and $100 million investments in public health recovery, appealing to anti-establishment GOP voters post his 2024 Trump endorsement. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5%, reinforced by his 53% win in the late-March CPAC straw poll as heir apparent amid Trump's term limits barring a third run. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.6% reflects a CPAC surge to 35% and reports of donors preferring him over Vance in private Trump polling, signaling early primary rivalries ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,898,887
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $503.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.