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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$504,201,777 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$504,201,777 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$7,977,524 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,779,111 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,328,252 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,822,281 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,482,975 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,668,893 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,003,968 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,847,809 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,169,970 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,922,323 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,451,611 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,091,035 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,984,281 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,579,011 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,615,574 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,071,417 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,442,633 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,132,345 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,258,765 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,257,029 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,238,985 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,661,399 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,373,959 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,579,508 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,983,307 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,970,003 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,958,897 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,539,104 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,321,826 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,525,128 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,057,338 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,021,190 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,598,740 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,255,507 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,232,177 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (22%), as President Trump's two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment opens the primary field. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his prominent cabinet role and family signals, including cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion that he is "definitely" running, alongside early polling trends elevating his profile despite low favorability ratings. Rubio's odds surged recently after reports of Trump privately polling 25 donors and allies on Vance versus Rubio preferences, with most favoring Rubio. Vance holds steady as presumed heir apparent, but a recent CPAC straw poll highlighted the tight race among top contenders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape the field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$504,201,777
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (22%), as President Trump's two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment opens the primary field. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his prominent cabinet role and family signals, including cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion that he is "definitely" running, alongside early polling trends elevating his profile despite low favorability ratings. Rubio's odds surged recently after reports of Trump privately polling 25 donors and allies on Vance versus Rubio preferences, with most favoring Rubio. Vance holds steady as presumed heir apparent, but a recent CPAC straw poll highlighted the tight race among top contenders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape the field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$504,201,777
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $504.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.