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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.9%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 11.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$539,192,926 Vol.

JD Vance 18.9%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 11.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$539,192,926 Vol.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

JD Vance

$10,426,798 Vol.

19%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Gavin Newsom

$15,571,756 Vol.

17%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Marco Rubio

$8,517,895 Vol.

12%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,147,319 Vol.

6%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Kamala Harris

$7,088,980 Vol.

4%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Jon Ossoff

$3,629,514 Vol.

4%

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Donald Trump

$7,032,626 Vol.

2%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,966,153 Vol.

2%

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,965,365 Vol.

2%

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tucker Carlson

$10,249,320 Vol.

2%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ron DeSantis

$9,488,462 Vol.

2%

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,281,829 Vol.

2%

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Andy Beshear

$17,654,231 Vol.

1%

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Glenn Youngkin

$21,152,222 Vol.

1%

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

JB Pritzker

$11,030,364 Vol.

1%

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$9,234,589 Vol.

1%

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Thomas Massie

$3,829,875 Vol.

1%

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

James Talarico

$4,766,168 Vol.

1%

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Elon Musk

$22,987,288 Vol.

1%

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Stephen Smith

$30,384,234 Vol.

1%

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Greg Abbott

$32,380,826 Vol.

1%

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Michelle Obama

$13,933,164 Vol.

1%

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ivanka Trump

$5,110,614 Vol.

1%

Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,739,370 Vol.

1%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$9,853,080 Vol.

1%

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Nikki Haley

$22,829,040 Vol.

1%

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ro Khanna

$7,562,089 Vol.

1%

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$28,928,176 Vol.

1%

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Zohran Mamdani

$18,163,695 Vol.

1%

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Eric Trump

$7,048,372 Vol.

1%

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tim Walz

$40,096,674 Vol.

1%

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Wes Moore

$7,337,626 Vol.

1%

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

LeBron James

$47,953,303 Vol.

1%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Pete Hegseth

$4,941,163 Vol.

1%

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$31,364,016 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Kim Kardashian

$33,602,161 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 19% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17%, as early speculation favors his incumbency advantage in a post-Trump administration amid a fragmented field on both sides. A late-March CPAC straw poll solidified Vance at 53% for the GOP nomination over Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 35%, while Newsom pulled ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in a March California Democratic primary poll, signaling his rising viability among key voting blocs. Divergent stances on the ongoing Iran conflict have spotlighted Vance-Rubio tensions, keeping the GOP race competitive. The tight odds reflect uncertainty in open primaries, with 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, policy wins like border security or economic growth, and potential scandals poised to create separation before Iowa caucuses and early primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$539,192,926
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 19% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17%, as early speculation favors his incumbency advantage in a post-Trump administration amid a fragmented field on both sides. A late-March CPAC straw poll solidified Vance at 53% for the GOP nomination over Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 35%, while Newsom pulled ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in a March California Democratic primary poll, signaling his rising viability among key voting blocs. Divergent stances on the ongoing Iran conflict have spotlighted Vance-Rubio tensions, keeping the GOP race competitive. The tight odds reflect uncertainty in open primaries, with 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, policy wins like border security or economic growth, and potential scandals poised to create separation before Iowa caucuses and early primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$539,192,926
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $539.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.