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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$463,998,457 Vol.

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$463,998,457 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,028,972 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,613,631 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,218,265 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,218,886 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,865,036 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,940,597 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,401,612 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,283,386 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,350,585 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,430,862 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$8,838,270 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,719,479 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,528,122 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,687,336 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,863,938 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,928,397 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$6,996,789 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,137,972 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,591,141 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,377,224 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,228,375 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,479,102 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,278,297 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,686,429 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,371,115 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,214,811 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,023,802 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,229,402 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,566,089 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$27,976,534 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,616,821 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$15,940,015 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,650,515 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,313,227 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,016,394 Vol.

<1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,387,785 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 18.1% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting trader consensus on their early frontrunner status amid post-2024 positioning. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low in the past week, driven by President Trump's Iran escalations and erratic statements tarnishing GOP appeal, while recent Emerson and JL Partners polls confirm Vance's dominance among Republicans (53%) and Newsom's edge in Democratic hypotheticals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by GOP donor "draft" efforts. The race remains tightly contested due to distant primaries, uncertain 2026 midterm outcomes, and lack of formal campaigns; separation could emerge from Trump's endorsement, foreign policy resolutions, or scandal-free paths to nomination.

Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 18.1% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting trader consensus on their early frontrunner status amid post-2024 positioning. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low in the past week, driven by President Trump's Iran escalations and erratic statements tarnishing GOP appeal, while recent Emerson and JL Partners polls confirm Vance's dominance among Republicans (53%) and Newsom's edge in Democratic hypotheticals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by GOP donor "draft" efforts. The race remains tightly contested due to distant primaries, uncertain 2026 midterm outcomes, and lack of formal campaigns; separation could emerge from Trump's endorsement, foreign policy resolutions, or scandal-free paths to nomination.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 18.1% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting trader consensus on their early frontrunner status amid post-2024 positioning. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low in the past week, driven by President Trump's Iran escalations and erratic statements tarnishing GOP appeal, while recent Emerson and JL Partners polls confirm Vance's dominance among Republicans (53%) and Newsom's edge in Democratic hypotheticals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by GOP donor "draft" efforts. The race remains tightly contested due to distant primaries, uncertain 2026 midterm outcomes, and lack of formal campaigns; separation could emerge from Trump's endorsement, foreign policy resolutions, or scandal-free paths to nomination.

Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 18.1% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting trader consensus on their early frontrunner status amid post-2024 positioning. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low in the past week, driven by President Trump's Iran escalations and erratic statements tarnishing GOP appeal, while recent Emerson and JL Partners polls confirm Vance's dominance among Republicans (53%) and Newsom's edge in Democratic hypotheticals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by GOP donor "draft" efforts. The race remains tightly contested due to distant primaries, uncertain 2026 midterm outcomes, and lack of formal campaigns; separation could emerge from Trump's endorsement, foreign policy resolutions, or scandal-free paths to nomination.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $464 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.