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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.0%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%

Polymarket

$462,752,018 Vol.

JD Vance 18.0%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%

Polymarket

$462,752,018 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,023,516 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,550,682 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,197,073 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,197,849 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,843,403 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,808,805 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,395,315 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,257,520 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,333,771 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,419,101 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$8,652,546 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,710,841 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,496,915 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,662,775 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,846,956 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,920,854 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$6,991,631 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,120,215 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,572,864 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,337,070 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,213,589 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,462,868 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,275,865 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,665,836 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,368,307 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,207,438 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,017,108 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,186,543 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,543,836 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$27,951,218 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,608,001 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$15,919,325 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,549,136 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,353,208 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,274,725 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$41,826,793 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow Polymarket lead at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, edged by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as traders balance Vance's incumbency advantage and presumed Republican frontrunner status post-Trump's 2024 victory against Newsom's rising profile in Democratic regrouping. Recent reports of President Trump privately polling major donors—who reportedly favor Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Vance—have propelled Rubio to 10.4%, tightening the Republican field and capping Vance's edge. Mixed early polls showing Vance's tepid popularity among some GOP voters, including young Republicans, contribute to the fluidity. The 2026 midterms will test party control and candidate viability, potentially widening leads amid absent primaries and open-field dynamics.

Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow Polymarket lead at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, edged by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as traders balance Vance's incumbency advantage and presumed Republican frontrunner status post-Trump's 2024 victory against Newsom's rising profile in Democratic regrouping. Recent reports of President Trump privately polling major donors—who reportedly favor Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Vance—have propelled Rubio to 10.4%, tightening the Republican field and capping Vance's edge. Mixed early polls showing Vance's tepid popularity among some GOP voters, including young Republicans, contribute to the fluidity. The 2026 midterms will test party control and candidate viability, potentially widening leads amid absent primaries and open-field dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow Polymarket lead at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, edged by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as traders balance Vance's incumbency advantage and presumed Republican frontrunner status post-Trump's 2024 victory against Newsom's rising profile in Democratic regrouping. Recent reports of President Trump privately polling major donors—who reportedly favor Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Vance—have propelled Rubio to 10.4%, tightening the Republican field and capping Vance's edge. Mixed early polls showing Vance's tepid popularity among some GOP voters, including young Republicans, contribute to the fluidity. The 2026 midterms will test party control and candidate viability, potentially widening leads amid absent primaries and open-field dynamics.

Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow Polymarket lead at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, edged by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as traders balance Vance's incumbency advantage and presumed Republican frontrunner status post-Trump's 2024 victory against Newsom's rising profile in Democratic regrouping. Recent reports of President Trump privately polling major donors—who reportedly favor Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Vance—have propelled Rubio to 10.4%, tightening the Republican field and capping Vance's edge. Mixed early polls showing Vance's tepid popularity among some GOP voters, including young Republicans, contribute to the fluidity. The 2026 midterms will test party control and candidate viability, potentially widening leads amid absent primaries and open-field dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $462.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.