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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.0%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$488,959,932 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.0%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$488,959,932 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,666,127 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$9,644,180 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,501,894 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,570,170 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,174,231 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,672,213 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,624,929 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,728,530 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,431,342 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,539,748 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,999,230 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,027,359 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,475,999 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,874,847 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,806,386 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,444,931 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,242,670 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,896,504 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,402,241 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,589,654 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,882,380 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,237,700 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,700,331 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,203,261 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,504,914 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,355,591 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,892,089 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,107,705 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,761,602 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,497,704 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,720,063 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,730,444 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,714,792 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,787,798 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,487,860 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$30,062,823 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.1%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting an open field over two years from primaries. Recent CPAC straw polls showed Vance dominating Republican preferences at 53%, bolstered by his new book release signaling potential campaign groundwork, while Newsom surged in Democratic early polling, leading Kamala Harris decisively in California and tying for second in New Hampshire. Divergent stances between Vance and Rubio on Iran policy amid escalating tensions have fueled speculation, keeping the race tight amid uncertainty over Trump administration performance and 2026 midterms. Separation could arise from primary endorsements, midterm outcomes, or foreign policy developments.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$488,959,932
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.1%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting an open field over two years from primaries. Recent CPAC straw polls showed Vance dominating Republican preferences at 53%, bolstered by his new book release signaling potential campaign groundwork, while Newsom surged in Democratic early polling, leading Kamala Harris decisively in California and tying for second in New Hampshire. Divergent stances between Vance and Rubio on Iran policy amid escalating tensions have fueled speculation, keeping the race tight amid uncertainty over Trump administration performance and 2026 midterms. Separation could arise from primary endorsements, midterm outcomes, or foreign policy developments.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$488,959,932
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $489 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.