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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%

Polymarket

$463,543,283 Vol.

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%

Polymarket

$463,543,283 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,027,713 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,608,077 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,216,842 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,200,819 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,854,105 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,888,268 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,399,720 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,279,855 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,348,558 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,430,386 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$8,774,942 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,717,504 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,527,006 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,685,852 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,861,687 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,926,725 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$6,994,075 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,137,317 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,589,091 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,362,479 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,227,150 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,477,685 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,277,152 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,684,550 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,370,406 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,211,611 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,021,754 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,219,721 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,558,719 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$27,969,526 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,612,254 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$15,932,566 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,594,240 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,296,742 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$41,896,060 Vol.

<1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,373,127 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.1% implied probability in the 2028 presidential winner market, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.5%, reflecting trader consensus on an open field shaped by recent foreign policy tensions. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid backlash over a tense call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizing escalation toward an "easy" Iran war, eroding his heir-apparent status as Trump's VP. Rubio has surged nearly triple his prior odds through high-profile G7 diplomacy and vows to dismantle Iran's missile factories, navy, and air force, drawing GOP donor interest and informal Trump polling against Vance. Newsom maintains Democratic frontrunner positioning via strong California primary polls and warnings of national stakes in 2028. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms and Iran developments could widen gaps in this contested race.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.1% implied probability in the 2028 presidential winner market, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.5%, reflecting trader consensus on an open field shaped by recent foreign policy tensions. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid backlash over a tense call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizing escalation toward an "easy" Iran war, eroding his heir-apparent status as Trump's VP. Rubio has surged nearly triple his prior odds through high-profile G7 diplomacy and vows to dismantle Iran's missile factories, navy, and air force, drawing GOP donor interest and informal Trump polling against Vance. Newsom maintains Democratic frontrunner positioning via strong California primary polls and warnings of national stakes in 2028. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms and Iran developments could widen gaps in this contested race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.1% implied probability in the 2028 presidential winner market, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.5%, reflecting trader consensus on an open field shaped by recent foreign policy tensions. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid backlash over a tense call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizing escalation toward an "easy" Iran war, eroding his heir-apparent status as Trump's VP. Rubio has surged nearly triple his prior odds through high-profile G7 diplomacy and vows to dismantle Iran's missile factories, navy, and air force, drawing GOP donor interest and informal Trump polling against Vance. Newsom maintains Democratic frontrunner positioning via strong California primary polls and warnings of national stakes in 2028. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms and Iran developments could widen gaps in this contested race.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.1% implied probability in the 2028 presidential winner market, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.5%, reflecting trader consensus on an open field shaped by recent foreign policy tensions. Vance's odds have plunged to an all-time low amid backlash over a tense call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizing escalation toward an "easy" Iran war, eroding his heir-apparent status as Trump's VP. Rubio has surged nearly triple his prior odds through high-profile G7 diplomacy and vows to dismantle Iran's missile factories, navy, and air force, drawing GOP donor interest and informal Trump polling against Vance. Newsom maintains Democratic frontrunner positioning via strong California primary polls and warnings of national stakes in 2028. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms and Iran developments could widen gaps in this contested race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $463.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.