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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$490,133,689 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$490,133,689 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,685,075 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$9,921,295 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,517,294 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,571,448 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,238,362 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,677,716 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,627,501 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,733,373 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,432,611 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,541,719 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$6,000,550 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,036,427 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,479,152 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,883,984 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,822,794 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,445,113 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,245,962 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,910,065 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,404,848 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,592,172 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,899,351 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,240,323 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,759,991 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,326,562 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,515,750 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,415,720 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,933,602 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,144,346 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,795,391 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,502,184 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,777,511 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,736,713 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,741,268 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,833,246 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,591,955 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$30,155,952 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's commanding wins in the late-March CPAC straw poll (53%) and NDGOP convention poll have solidified his trader consensus lead at 17.6% for the 2028 presidential election winner, buoyed by his incumbency advantage as heir apparent in a post-Trump Republican field. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.8%, bolstered by his March California primary polling dominance over Kamala Harris and national book tour signaling a Democratic frontrunner path. Senator Marco Rubio holds third at 10.3% after a mid-March surge from donor preferences and Secretary of State visibility amid Iran tensions, but recent polls favor Vance. This tight race reflects an open primary field ahead of 2026 midterms, where endorsements, midterm outcomes, or executive actions could create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$490,133,689
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's commanding wins in the late-March CPAC straw poll (53%) and NDGOP convention poll have solidified his trader consensus lead at 17.6% for the 2028 presidential election winner, buoyed by his incumbency advantage as heir apparent in a post-Trump Republican field. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.8%, bolstered by his March California primary polling dominance over Kamala Harris and national book tour signaling a Democratic frontrunner path. Senator Marco Rubio holds third at 10.3% after a mid-March surge from donor preferences and Secretary of State visibility amid Iran tensions, but recent polls favor Vance. This tight race reflects an open primary field ahead of 2026 midterms, where endorsements, midterm outcomes, or executive actions could create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$490,133,689
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $490.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.