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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,445,174 Vol.

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,445,174 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,133,801 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,721,922 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,649 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,377,289 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,957,246 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,491,830 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,342,811 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,313,994 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,439,616 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,374 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,009,540 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,378 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,475,873 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,797 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,636 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,932 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,069,818 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,327 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,650,680 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,351,716 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,961,418 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,558,179 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,708 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,020,074 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,639,440 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,364 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,407,832 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,760,104 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,158,899 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,586 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,914,660 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,283,747 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,033,571 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,918,860 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,034,420 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,519,925 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance edges California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, buoyed by his incumbency as heir apparent in early Republican primary polling like New Hampshire surveys showing him far ahead of rivals such as Marco Rubio. Newsom's near-parity stems from recent general election hypotheticals where he leads Vance, amplified by President Trump's disapproval climbing to 55% amid foreign policy tensions including Iran actions and erratic statements that have dented GOP prospects. The tight race underscores uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state turnout and congressional control could solidify paths to nomination via primaries, caucuses, and endorsements, potentially separating frontrunners.

Vice President JD Vance edges California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, buoyed by his incumbency as heir apparent in early Republican primary polling like New Hampshire surveys showing him far ahead of rivals such as Marco Rubio. Newsom's near-parity stems from recent general election hypotheticals where he leads Vance, amplified by President Trump's disapproval climbing to 55% amid foreign policy tensions including Iran actions and erratic statements that have dented GOP prospects. The tight race underscores uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state turnout and congressional control could solidify paths to nomination via primaries, caucuses, and endorsements, potentially separating frontrunners.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance edges California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, buoyed by his incumbency as heir apparent in early Republican primary polling like New Hampshire surveys showing him far ahead of rivals such as Marco Rubio. Newsom's near-parity stems from recent general election hypotheticals where he leads Vance, amplified by President Trump's disapproval climbing to 55% amid foreign policy tensions including Iran actions and erratic statements that have dented GOP prospects. The tight race underscores uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state turnout and congressional control could solidify paths to nomination via primaries, caucuses, and endorsements, potentially separating frontrunners.

Vice President JD Vance edges California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, buoyed by his incumbency as heir apparent in early Republican primary polling like New Hampshire surveys showing him far ahead of rivals such as Marco Rubio. Newsom's near-parity stems from recent general election hypotheticals where he leads Vance, amplified by President Trump's disapproval climbing to 55% amid foreign policy tensions including Iran actions and erratic statements that have dented GOP prospects. The tight race underscores uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state turnout and congressional control could solidify paths to nomination via primaries, caucuses, and endorsements, potentially separating frontrunners.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.