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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.6%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.6%

Polymarket

$481,301,975 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.6%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.6%

Polymarket

$481,301,975 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,537,179 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,481,310 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,449,705 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,515,074 Vol.

7%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,085,134 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,623,230 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,541,246 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,348,324 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,669,272 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,483,781 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,615,820 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,247,564 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,955,716 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,838,290 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,713,989 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,410,212 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,178,222 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,832,098 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,152,118 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,324,658 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,488,807 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,703,083 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,555,275 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,140,141 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,903,294 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,465,543 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,666,861 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,942,587 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,592,776 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,397,281 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,641,320 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,493,256 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,358,370 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,215,060 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,322,978 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,414,045 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices JD Vance at 17.6% and Gavin Newsom at 16.6% as early frontrunners for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting their strong positioning as sitting vice president and California governor amid fragmented fields in both parties. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, leaving the race tight due to high uncertainty this far out—over two years before primaries—with probabilities spread across dozens of candidates based on name recognition, party insider support, and perceived paths to victory through swing states. Vance draws from Republican base loyalty and potential Trump endorsement, while Newsom leverages Democratic fundraising networks in an open primary post-2024. Key catalysts ahead include 2026 midterm results, which could signal party momentum via House and Senate control; early polling averages; high-profile endorsements; or scandals that consolidate or erode support. Term limits bar Donald Trump's eligibility, capping his odds at 2.4%.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$481,301,975
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices JD Vance at 17.6% and Gavin Newsom at 16.6% as early frontrunners for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting their strong positioning as sitting vice president and California governor amid fragmented fields in both parties. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, leaving the race tight due to high uncertainty this far out—over two years before primaries—with probabilities spread across dozens of candidates based on name recognition, party insider support, and perceived paths to victory through swing states. Vance draws from Republican base loyalty and potential Trump endorsement, while Newsom leverages Democratic fundraising networks in an open primary post-2024. Key catalysts ahead include 2026 midterm results, which could signal party momentum via House and Senate control; early polling averages; high-profile endorsements; or scandals that consolidate or erode support. Term limits bar Donald Trump's eligibility, capping his odds at 2.4%.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$481,301,975
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $481.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.