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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,644,772 Vol.

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,644,772 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,139,636 Vol.

17%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,722,324 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,306,211 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,411,448 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,958,547 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,492,553 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,343,576 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,315,897 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,440,556 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,455 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,011,245 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,803,539 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,486,650 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,754,021 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,609,131 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,997,851 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,074,440 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,223,109 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,667,523 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,353,750 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,963,424 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,562,020 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,368,581 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,020,363 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,640,172 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,298,079 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,410,421 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,765,076 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,161,839 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,746 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,930,840 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,286,330 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,038,372 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,923,972 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,069,063 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,538,286 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold a razor-thin lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner at 17.4% and 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting an early, fluid race shaped by President Trump's second-term dynamics. Vance's odds have crashed to all-time lows amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal and postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure in late March, fueling GOP uncertainty despite his CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination. Newsom gained traction from a March 12 poll showing a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. The 2026 midterms will test Trump administration popularity, potentially tipping balances via House control shifts or incumbency effects.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold a razor-thin lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner at 17.4% and 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting an early, fluid race shaped by President Trump's second-term dynamics. Vance's odds have crashed to all-time lows amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal and postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure in late March, fueling GOP uncertainty despite his CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination. Newsom gained traction from a March 12 poll showing a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. The 2026 midterms will test Trump administration popularity, potentially tipping balances via House control shifts or incumbency effects.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold a razor-thin lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner at 17.4% and 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting an early, fluid race shaped by President Trump's second-term dynamics. Vance's odds have crashed to all-time lows amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal and postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure in late March, fueling GOP uncertainty despite his CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination. Newsom gained traction from a March 12 poll showing a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. The 2026 midterms will test Trump administration popularity, potentially tipping balances via House control shifts or incumbency effects.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold a razor-thin lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner at 17.4% and 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting an early, fluid race shaped by President Trump's second-term dynamics. Vance's odds have crashed to all-time lows amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal and postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure in late March, fueling GOP uncertainty despite his CPAC straw poll win for the Republican nomination. Newsom gained traction from a March 12 poll showing a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. The 2026 midterms will test Trump administration popularity, potentially tipping balances via House control shifts or incumbency effects.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 17%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.