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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.3%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$476,680,728 Vol.

JD Vance 17.3%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$476,680,728 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,277,172 Vol.

17%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,825,760 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,399,917 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,437,092 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,072,338 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,519,058 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,586,341 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,324,147 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,553,537 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,714,201 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,445,569 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,929,180 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,298,863 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,690,497 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,778,169 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,091,651 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,364,972 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,081,222 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,763,144 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,243,607 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,459,271 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,412,611 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,668,161 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,472,422 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,126,770 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,767,940 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,550,125 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,887,965 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,358,271 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,274,192 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,553,896 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,307,416 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,100,292 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,147,290 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,317,462 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,882,205 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, bolstered by his commanding 53% win in the latest CPAC straw poll among Republicans, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4% as the emerging Democratic frontrunner in an open field. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.1% reflects his surging GOP profile. The tight race stems from early-cycle speculation, with Vance's odds recently dipping amid Trump administration tensions over Iran ceasefire talks and retaliatory strikes, offsetting conservative enthusiasm. Key separators include 2026 midterm outcomes in battleground states, primary polling trends, and resolution of foreign policy uncertainties ahead of 2028 primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$476,680,728
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, bolstered by his commanding 53% win in the latest CPAC straw poll among Republicans, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4% as the emerging Democratic frontrunner in an open field. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.1% reflects his surging GOP profile. The tight race stems from early-cycle speculation, with Vance's odds recently dipping amid Trump administration tensions over Iran ceasefire talks and retaliatory strikes, offsetting conservative enthusiasm. Key separators include 2026 midterm outcomes in battleground states, primary polling trends, and resolution of foreign policy uncertainties ahead of 2028 primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$476,680,728
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 17%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $476.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.