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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,783,896 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,783,896 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,683,178 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$9,886,721 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,515,703 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,570,995 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,238,305 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,677,555 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,627,185 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,733,311 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,432,503 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,541,719 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$6,000,538 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,036,223 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,478,952 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,883,984 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,822,794 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,445,113 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,244,450 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,910,055 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,404,788 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,592,172 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,898,501 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,239,237 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,759,884 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,326,500 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,515,750 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,415,720 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,933,390 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,143,704 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,792,805 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,501,453 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,738,460 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,736,014 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,724,692 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,800,973 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,488,593 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$30,074,570 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with implied probabilities reflecting Vance's strong polling among Republicans (53% in recent surveys) and his positioning as heir apparent amid donor outreach and President Trump's endorsements. Newsom closes the gap via his national profile from policy clashes with the administration and Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio lurks third after a recent surge tied to diplomatic wins. The tight race stems from the distant timeline before 2027 primaries, uncertain Trump influence, and pending 2026 midterms that could reshape party dynamics and path-to-victory in swing states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,783,896
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with implied probabilities reflecting Vance's strong polling among Republicans (53% in recent surveys) and his positioning as heir apparent amid donor outreach and President Trump's endorsements. Newsom closes the gap via his national profile from policy clashes with the administration and Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio lurks third after a recent surge tied to diplomatic wins. The tight race stems from the distant timeline before 2027 primaries, uncertain Trump influence, and pending 2026 midterms that could reshape party dynamics and path-to-victory in swing states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,783,896
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $489.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.