Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 21%

Carlos Álvarez 16.4%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.7%

Polymarket

$4,790,123 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 21%

Carlos Álvarez 16.4%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.7%

Polymarket

$4,790,123 Vol.

Market icon

Rafael López Aliaga

$619,176 Vol.

33%

Market icon

Keiko Fujimori

$252,598 Vol.

21%

Market icon

Carlos Álvarez

$140,640 Vol.

16%

Market icon

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$336,581 Vol.

9%

Market icon

Alfonso López Chau

$224,382 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Jorge Nieto

$680,808 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Ricardo Belmont

$213,043 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marisol Pérez Tello

$198,225 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Carlos Espá

$156,367 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wolfgang Grozo

$382,539 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mesías Guevara

$120,203 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Yonhy Lescano

$191,856 Vol.

1%

Market icon

César Acuña

$114,718 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

George Forsyth

$140,295 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mario Vizcarra

$138,404 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Williams

$68,211 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fernando Olivera

$107,857 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Roberto Chiabra

$74,434 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fiorella Molinelli

$97,026 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Luna

$106,901 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$130,721 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vladimir Cerrón

$132,564 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Enrique Valderrama

$162,574 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round vote and potential runoff, driven by late-March polls like Datum (11.7%) and Ipsos (up to 17.3%) where he leads or ties Keiko Fujimori amid a fragmented 35-candidate field and 20-25% undecided voters. His edge stems from conservative anti-crime platform resonating with public concerns over rising insecurity and instability, differentiating him from Fujimori's established Fuerza Popular machine and name recognition but tarnished legacy, Carlos Álvarez's outsider conservative appeal (6-8%), and Alfonso López Chau's centre-left gains (5-7%). Roberto Sánchez Palomino shows minor rises to 7% in some surveys. Consolidation hinges on endorsements, final JNE debates, and undecided shifts before resolution post-runoff if needed.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,790,123
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% to win Peru's April 12 presidential first-round vote and potential runoff, driven by late-March polls like Datum (11.7%) and Ipsos (up to 17.3%) where he leads or ties Keiko Fujimori amid a fragmented 35-candidate field and 20-25% undecided voters. His edge stems from conservative anti-crime platform resonating with public concerns over rising insecurity and instability, differentiating him from Fujimori's established Fuerza Popular machine and name recognition but tarnished legacy, Carlos Álvarez's outsider conservative appeal (6-8%), and Alfonso López Chau's centre-left gains (5-7%). Roberto Sánchez Palomino shows minor rises to 7% in some surveys. Consolidation hinges on endorsements, final JNE debates, and undecided shifts before resolution post-runoff if needed.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,790,123
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

44%
Market icon

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

18%
Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election Winner" has generated $4.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.