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Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 31%

Keiko Fujimori 22%

Carlos Álvarez 17.1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.7%

Polymarket

$4,768,259 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 31%

Keiko Fujimori 22%

Carlos Álvarez 17.1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.7%

Polymarket

$4,768,259 Vol.

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Rafael López Aliaga

$617,149 Vol.

31%

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Keiko Fujimori

$250,332 Vol.

22%

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Carlos Álvarez

$140,268 Vol.

17%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$330,289 Vol.

9%

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Alfonso López Chau

$223,182 Vol.

7%

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Jorge Nieto

$676,846 Vol.

6%

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Ricardo Belmont

$209,929 Vol.

2%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$198,225 Vol.

1%

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Carlos Espá

$156,367 Vol.

1%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$382,014 Vol.

1%

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Mesías Guevara

$120,190 Vol.

1%

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Yonhy Lescano

$191,722 Vol.

1%

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César Acuña

$114,713 Vol.

<1%

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George Forsyth

$140,295 Vol.

<1%

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Mario Vizcarra

$138,324 Vol.

<1%

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José Williams

$68,211 Vol.

<1%

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Fernando Olivera

$107,857 Vol.

<1%

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Roberto Chiabra

$74,383 Vol.

<1%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$96,898 Vol.

<1%

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José Luna

$105,218 Vol.

<1%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$130,711 Vol.

<1%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$132,564 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Valderrama

$162,572 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Rafael López Aliaga as the Peru presidential election winner at 31.5%, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%) and Carlos Álvarez (17.1%), amid a fragmented 35-candidate field ahead of the April 12 first-round vote requiring over 50% for outright victory or a June runoff between top two. Recent post-debate polls from late March, including Datum (Fujimori 13%, López Aliaga 11.7%) and Ipsos, show the right-wing duo in a tight race with high undecided voters (15-25%) and regional splits—Fujimori strong in the north, López Aliaga in the south—keeping the contest volatile. Debates on crime and corruption drew mutual accusations but no major shifts, while Fujimori's recent truce offer to López Aliaga signals potential right-wing consolidation. Late voter turnout, endorsements, or scandals could tip first-round advancement and runoff dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,768,259
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Rafael López Aliaga as the Peru presidential election winner at 31.5%, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%) and Carlos Álvarez (17.1%), amid a fragmented 35-candidate field ahead of the April 12 first-round vote requiring over 50% for outright victory or a June runoff between top two. Recent post-debate polls from late March, including Datum (Fujimori 13%, López Aliaga 11.7%) and Ipsos, show the right-wing duo in a tight race with high undecided voters (15-25%) and regional splits—Fujimori strong in the north, López Aliaga in the south—keeping the contest volatile. Debates on crime and corruption drew mutual accusations but no major shifts, while Fujimori's recent truce offer to López Aliaga signals potential right-wing consolidation. Late voter turnout, endorsements, or scandals could tip first-round advancement and runoff dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,768,259
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

43%
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Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

19%
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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 31%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election Winner" has generated $4.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.