Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout in Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical base rates around 73% in 2021 amid compulsory voting and average 81% participation, despite voter disillusionment from a decade of instability, crime surges, and six presidents since 2016. Logistical chaos—late ballot deliveries stranding over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—sparked fraud claims from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga, but EU observers confirmed no irregularities, with partial counts (over 93% actas processed) aligning near 70%. Scenarios challenging this include final ONPE figures dipping below 70% from rural or expatriate abstentions, recount delays, or disputes pushing resolution past June 7 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated70-75% 93.7%
80-85% 2.7%
75-80% 2.4%
< 70% <1%
$163,445 Vol.
$163,445 Vol.
< 70%
1%
70-75%
94%
75-80%
2%
80-85%
3%
> 85%
<1%
70-75% 93.7%
80-85% 2.7%
75-80% 2.4%
< 70% <1%
$163,445 Vol.
$163,445 Vol.
< 70%
1%
70-75%
94%
75-80%
2%
80-85%
3%
> 85%
<1%
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout in Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical base rates around 73% in 2021 amid compulsory voting and average 81% participation, despite voter disillusionment from a decade of instability, crime surges, and six presidents since 2016. Logistical chaos—late ballot deliveries stranding over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—sparked fraud claims from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga, but EU observers confirmed no irregularities, with partial counts (over 93% actas processed) aligning near 70%. Scenarios challenging this include final ONPE figures dipping below 70% from rural or expatriate abstentions, recount delays, or disputes pushing resolution past June 7 runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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