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Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Market icon
Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Alfonso López Chau 41.6%

Fernando Olivera 19%

Yonhy Lescano 9%

Vladimir Cerrón 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Alfonso López Chau 41.6%

Fernando Olivera 19%

Yonhy Lescano 9%

Vladimir Cerrón 8%

Polymarket
NEW
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Alfonso López Chau

$168 Vol.

42%

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Fernando Olivera

$347 Vol.

19%

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Yonhy Lescano

$256 Vol.

9%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$171 Vol.

8%

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José Williams

$1,570 Vol.

5%

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José Luna

$177 Vol.

5%

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Ricardo Belmont

$170 Vol.

5%

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Jorge Nieto

$198 Vol.

5%

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Rafael López Aliaga

$247 Vol.

5%

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Carlos Álvarez

$515 Vol.

4%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$166 Vol.

4%

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Enrique Valderrama

$1,726 Vol.

4%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$172 Vol.

4%

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George Forsyth

$176 Vol.

4%

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Roberto Chiabra

$167 Vol.

4%

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Mesías Guevara

$351 Vol.

3%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$185 Vol.

18%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$195 Vol.

20%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$210 Vol.

2%

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Mario Vizcarra

$182 Vol.

9%

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Carlos Espá

$204 Vol.

8%

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Keiko Fujimori

$193 Vol.

32%

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César Acuña

$198 Vol.

31%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus favors Alfonso López Chau for fourth place in Peru's April 12 presidential first-round vote at 42% implied probability, driven by his recent surge to 9-10% in early April polls like Imasolu and CIT, fueled by leftist momentum in southern strongholds amid voter frustration with corruption and instability. Keiko Fujimori's 32% odds reflect her volatile positioning—polling 13-18% nationally but at risk of slipping behind surging regional or military-backed challengers like Wolfgang Grozo following last week's final debates. César Acuña's 31% pricing stems from his steady northern regional base (6-9% in recent Ipsos and IEP surveys), in a fragmented 36-candidate field with 20-30% undecided voters and no frontrunner above 18%, heightening volatility ahead of potential runoff qualification.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$7,943
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus favors Alfonso López Chau for fourth place in Peru's April 12 presidential first-round vote at 42% implied probability, driven by his recent surge to 9-10% in early April polls like Imasolu and CIT, fueled by leftist momentum in southern strongholds amid voter frustration with corruption and instability. Keiko Fujimori's 32% odds reflect her volatile positioning—polling 13-18% nationally but at risk of slipping behind surging regional or military-backed challengers like Wolfgang Grozo following last week's final debates. César Acuña's 31% pricing stems from his steady northern regional base (6-9% in recent Ipsos and IEP surveys), in a fragmented 36-candidate field with 20-30% undecided voters and no frontrunner above 18%, heightening volatility ahead of potential runoff qualification.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$7,943
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alfonso López Chau" at 42%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is "Alfonso López Chau" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.