Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Name: Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Start: 2026-03-20T14:48:40.450Z
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place — Discussion

0x1312Bd1b9B103233b8714237b1B3e0049D02e932-1765143837771 · 2026-03-20T14:48:40.450Z

Discussion about Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Jorge Nieto 98.7%

Ricardo Belmont <1%

Rafael López Aliaga <1%

Keiko Fujimori <1%

$420,549 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026

Jorge Nieto

$51,129 Vol.

99%

Ricardo Belmont

$218,645 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga

$51,147 Vol.

<1%

Keiko Fujimori

$1,914 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Álvarez

$5,009 Vol.

<1%

Alfonso López Chau

$8,957 Vol.

<1%

José Luna

$708 Vol.

<1%

Roberto Chiabra

$1,004 Vol.

<1%

José Williams

$5,052 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Espá

$2,562 Vol.

<1%

Yonhy Lescano

$1,570 Vol.

<1%

Marisol Pérez Tello

$1,678 Vol.

<1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$57,908 Vol.

<1%

Mario Vizcarra

$1,235 Vol.

<1%

César Acuña

$702 Vol.

<1%

Vladimir Cerrón

$501 Vol.

<1%

George Forsyth

$1,246 Vol.

<1%

Enrique Valderrama

$4,462 Vol.

<1%

Fiorella Molinelli

$1,179 Vol.

<1%

Fernando Olivera

$747 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$651 Vol.

<1%

Mesías Guevara

$1,342 Vol.

<1%

Wolfgang Grozo

$1,201 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Nieto 98.7%

Ricardo Belmont <1%

Rafael López Aliaga <1%

Keiko Fujimori <1%

$420,549 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026

Jorge Nieto

$51,129 Vol.

99%

Ricardo Belmont

$218,645 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga

$51,147 Vol.

<1%

Keiko Fujimori

$1,914 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Álvarez

$5,009 Vol.

<1%

Alfonso López Chau

$8,957 Vol.

<1%

José Luna

$708 Vol.

<1%

Roberto Chiabra

$1,004 Vol.

<1%

José Williams

$5,052 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Espá

$2,562 Vol.

<1%

Yonhy Lescano

$1,570 Vol.

<1%

Marisol Pérez Tello

$1,678 Vol.

<1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$57,908 Vol.

<1%

Mario Vizcarra

$1,235 Vol.

<1%

César Acuña

$702 Vol.

<1%

Vladimir Cerrón

$501 Vol.

<1%

George Forsyth

$1,246 Vol.

<1%

Enrique Valderrama

$4,462 Vol.

<1%

Fiorella Molinelli

$1,179 Vol.

<1%

Fernando Olivera

$747 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$651 Vol.

<1%

Mesías Guevara

$1,342 Vol.

<1%

Wolfgang Grozo

$1,201 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

99%

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

80%

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

82%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jorge Nieto" at 99%, followed by "Ricardo Belmont" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" has generated $420.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is "Jorge Nieto" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ricardo Belmont" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $420.5K traded on “Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 99¢ for "Jorge Nieto" in the "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 99% chance that "Jorge Nieto" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 99¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 1¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

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Market Context

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Comments (2)

Top Holders

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