Market icon
Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Derek Merrin 57%

Madison Sheahan 17%

Josh Williams 15.7%

Alea Nadeem 9.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin 57%

Madison Sheahan 17%

Josh Williams 15.7%

Alea Nadeem 9.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin

$2,741 Vol.

57%

Madison Sheahan

$1,871 Vol.

17%

Josh Williams

$699 Vol.

16%

Alea Nadeem

$725 Vol.

9%

Wayne Kinsel

$351 Vol.

7%

Anthony Campbell

$428 Vol.

1%

Jacob Frost

$547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 58% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his superior fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—paired with local roots as former Waterville mayor and eight-year Ohio House member who narrowly lost to incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024. Josh Williams at 17% has gained momentum from a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging to 155 votes post-event from 109 pre-forum while Merrin fell to 47 from 70, highlighting grassroots appeal as current House Majority Whip. Madison Sheahan's 17% odds reflect challenges including a January Lucas County GOP residency rule change after her entry as ex-ICE deputy director and a March report on controversial agency vehicle spending; Alea Nadeem trails at 6% leveraging Air Force command experience. No public polls exist ahead of the May 5 primary in this redrawn Republican-leaning district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,362
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 58% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his superior fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—paired with local roots as former Waterville mayor and eight-year Ohio House member who narrowly lost to incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024. Josh Williams at 17% has gained momentum from a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging to 155 votes post-event from 109 pre-forum while Merrin fell to 47 from 70, highlighting grassroots appeal as current House Majority Whip. Madison Sheahan's 17% odds reflect challenges including a January Lucas County GOP residency rule change after her entry as ex-ICE deputy director and a March report on controversial agency vehicle spending; Alea Nadeem trails at 6% leveraging Air Force command experience. No public polls exist ahead of the May 5 primary in this redrawn Republican-leaning district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,362
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

Market icon

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

73%
Market icon

Will Andrew Clyde be the Republican nominee for GA-09?

83%
Market icon

Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 57%, followed by "Madison Sheahan" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Derek Merrin" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Sheahan" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.