# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

Name: # of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?
Start: 2026-03-05T17:13:18.242Z
End: 2026-03-08T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·Colombia

# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

24-26 93.8%

27-29 4.0%

21-23 1.0%

<18 <1%

$17,683 Vol.

Mar 8, 2026

<18

$0 Vol.

<1%

18-20

$0 Vol.

<1%

21-23

$0 Vol.

24-26

$17,683 Vol.

94%

27-29

$0 Vol.

30+

$0 Vol.

<1%

24-26 93.8%

27-29 4.0%

21-23 1.0%

<18 <1%

$17,683 Vol.

Mar 8, 2026

<18

$0 Vol.

<1%

18-20

$0 Vol.

<1%

21-23

$0 Vol.

24-26

$17,683 Vol.

94%

27-29

$0 Vol.

30+

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 12:04 PM ET

Volume

$17,683

End Date

Mar 8, 2026

Market Opened

Mar 5, 2026, 12:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Trader consensus assigns 93.7% implied probability to Pacto Histórico (PH) capturing 24-26 seats in Colombia's Senate election under the nationwide proportional representation system for the 108-seat chamber, reflecting consistent recent polling averages from firms like Invamer and Datexco placing PH vote share at 22-24%. No major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted sentiment, with PH's position shored up by steady support from urban, youth, and progressive voting blocs amid President Petro's coalition holding steady despite economic pressures and governance critiques. Key factors include incumbency advantages and fragmented opposition, though scenarios like new scandals, economic shocks, coalition splits, or right-wing consolidation could realistically drop PH below 24 seats by eroding vote share under 22%. The market awaits the March 2026 vote, with intervening regional contests as potential catalysts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 27, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

71%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

12%

Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

83%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "24-26" at 94%, followed by "27-29" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" has generated $17.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" is "24-26" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27-29" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $17.7K traded on “# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 94¢ for "24-26" in the "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 94% chance that "24-26" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 94¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 6¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?

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