Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?

Market icon

Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?

$140,941 Vol.

Feb 20, 2026
Polymarket

$140,941 Vol.

Polymarket

>20%

$70,959 Vol.

Yes

>30%

$69,982 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volume
$140,941
End Date
Feb 20, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 1-hour period between 12:00 PM and 12:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant one-hour window. This will display the one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">20%" at 100%, followed by ">30%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?" has generated $140.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?" is ">20%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is ">30%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Odds US strikes Iran in Feb over __ on Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.